Widzew II v Warta Sieradz prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:01

Widzew II 0–1 Warta Sieradz WIDZEW II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Widzew II win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.628

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Widzew II win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Widzew II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
2′KICK-OFF Widzew II v Warta Sieradz
45′Warta Sieradz score on 45′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–66
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Widzew II 0–1 Warta Sieradz
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Warta Sieradz win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Widzew II win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Widzew II 0–1 Warta Sieradz
46′We said Widzew II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
46′SECOND HALF Widzew II 0–1 Warta Sieradz
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
52′We said Widzew II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
55′PENALTY MISSED · 54' Widzew II
69′We said Widzew II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Widzew II win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Widzew II 0–1 Warta Sieradz
FTWidzew II 0–1 Warta Sieradz · Widzew II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Widzew II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Widzew II 40%, draw 24%, Warta Sieradz 36%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Widzew II v Warta SieradzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Widzew II win40%

Draw24%

Warta Sieradz win36%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup I · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Widzew II

Warta Sieradz

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Warta Sieradz	12	+1	18
12	Widzew II	12	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · widzew ii winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Widzew II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Widzew II v Warta Sieradz~~1.67 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~12 v 9

~~The market · Widzew II win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Widzew II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Widzew II win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Warta Sieradz win	36%	36%	0
Over 2.5 goals	63%	55%	+8
Both teams to score	64%	59%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	77%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	41%	35%	+6
Widzew II or draw	64%	64%	0
Widzew II clean sheet	21%	–	–
Warta Sieradz clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.7 5.6 4.9 2.6 1 6.0 10.7 7.9 4.2 2 5.4 8.3 6.5 3.5 3 3.0 4.7 3.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Widzew II down, Warta Sieradz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,682 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Widzew II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Warta Sieradz away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Widzew II, 1.58 for Warta Sieradz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAR 1–2 WID · WID 1–3 WAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept

WIDZEW II

LLLDLD0–2 · 2–3 · 3–6 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

WARTA SIERADZ

WWDDLW4–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	13	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
6	Wisła Płock II	13	+4	21
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	13	+4	21
8	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
9	Warta Sieradz	12	+1	18
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	12	+1	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3