Widzew II v Łomża prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Widzew IIDrawŁomża

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Widzew II 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Widzew II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Widzew II 41%, draw 24%, Łomża 35%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Widzew II v ŁomżaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Widzew II win41%

Draw24%

Łomża win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Widzew II

Łomża

4Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
18	Łomża	13	−18	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · widzew ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Widzew II a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Widzew II v Łomża~~1.76 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 15 v 3~~12 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Widzew II win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Widzew II win	41%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Łomża win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Widzew II or draw	65%	–	–
Widzew II clean sheet	20%	–	–
Łomża clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.2 5.0 4.5 2.5 1 5.5 10.2 7.7 4.2 2 5.3 8.3 6.7 3.7 3 3.1 4.9 3.9 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Widzew II down, Łomża across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 9.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Widzew II at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Łomża away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Widzew II, 1.63 for Łomża. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~9.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WID 2–6 LOM · LOM 6–4 WID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept

WIDZEW II

LLDLDL2–3 · 3–6 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

ŁOMŻA

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	14	+14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	+17	31
3	Swit	14	+8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	+7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	+4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	+4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	+4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	+2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	+1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	−3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	−1	17
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	−3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	−4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	−7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	−10	14
17	Troszyn	14	−15	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3