Weszlo v Warta Sieradz prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WeszloDrawWarta Sieradz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Weszlo 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Weszlo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Weszlo 44%, draw 26%, Warta Sieradz 30%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Weszlo v Warta SieradzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Weszlo win44%

Draw26%

Warta Sieradz win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Weszlo

Warta Sieradz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weszlo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Weszlo a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Weszlo v Warta Sieradz~~1.62 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 32 v 22~~1 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Weszlo win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Warta Sieradz win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Weszlo or draw	70%	–	–
Weszlo clean sheet	28%	–	–
Warta Sieradz clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.4 6.4 4.6 2.0 1 8.2 11.9 7.2 3.2 2 7.1 9.0 5.8 2.5 3 3.9 4.9 3.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Weszlo down, Warta Sieradz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Weszlo at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Warta Sieradz away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Weszlo, 1.30 for Warta Sieradz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept

WESZLO

WDLWWL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–4

WARTA SIERADZ

DDLWWD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	14	+14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	+17	31
3	Swit	14	+8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	+7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	+4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	+4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	+4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	+2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	+1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	−3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	−1	17
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	−3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	−4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	−7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	−10	14
17	Troszyn	14	−15	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3