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Weszlo v Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Weszlo
3–2Full time
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

III Liga - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Weszlo 3–2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki WESZLO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Weszlo win53%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.329
The market’s Brier score0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Weszlo win at 53%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Weszlo 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–22–25
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Weszlo v Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  4. 15′A goal for Weszlo on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–15–10
  5. 15′We said Weszlo at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–10
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Weszlo 1–0 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Weszlo win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–16–9
  9. 45′Weszlo score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  10. 45′We said Weszlo at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  11. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Weszlo 2–0 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  12. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Weszlo win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Weszlo 2–0 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Weszlo 2–0 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  15. 55′We said Weszlo at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  16. 57′Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki find the net on 56′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
  17. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Weszlo 2–1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  18. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Weszlo win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
  19. 64′We said Weszlo at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  20. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Weszlo win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
  21. 75′We said Weszlo at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  22. 82′A goal for Weszlo on 82′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  23. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Weszlo 3–1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Weszlo win: 53% at kick-off, 99% now
  25. 83′We said Weszlo at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 83′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  27. 87′Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki score on 87′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  28. 87′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  29. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Weszlo 3–2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  30. FTFULL TIME Weszlo 3–2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
  31. FTWeszlo 3–2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · Weszlo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Weszlo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Weszlo 53%, draw 22%, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 25%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Weszlo v Mazovia Minsk MazowieckiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Weszlo win53%
Draw22%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Weszlo

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo12+1629
4Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki12+621

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weszlo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:12 · locked at kick-off
53% The market43%
Us53%
Market43%

We make Weszlo a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Weszlo v Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki2.11 – 1.40
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 5 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 29 v 211 v 4
The market · Weszlo win43% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 13:48
Our probability · Weszlo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Weszlo win53%43%+10
Draw22%25%−3
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win25%31%−6
Over 2.5 goals68%60%+8
Both teams to score66%63%+3
Over 1.5 goals86%80%+6
Over 3.5 goals46%40%+6
Weszlo or draw75%69%+6
Weszlo clean sheet25%––
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%
0123450 3.7 3.8 3.0 1 6.0 9.3 6.1 2.9 2 6.7 9.1 6.3 3.0 3 4.7 6.4 4.4 2.1 4 2.5 3.4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Weszlo down, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

WESZLO

WWWDLW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

MAZOVIA MINSK MAZOWIECKI

WWWLDL5–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo12+1629
2Wigry Suwałki13+1428
3Pelikan Łowicz13+423
4Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki12+621
5Wisła Płock II13+421
6Ząbkovia Ząbki12+420
7Swit12+320
8Olimpia Zambrów13+120
9Warta Sieradz12+118
10Olimpia Elbląg13−317
11Jagiellonia II12+116
12ŁKS Łódź II13−115
13Widzew II11+114
14Lechia T. Mazowiecki12−513
15Mławianka Mława13−1013
16Polonia Lidzbark Warm.13−612
17Troszyn12−1210
18Łomża13−183

The competition's standings before kick-off.