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Warta Sieradz v Wigry Suwałki

Warta Sieradz

1–3Full time

Wigry Suwałki

III Liga - Group 1 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Warta Sieradz 1–3 Wigry Suwałki WARTA SIERADZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Warta Sieradz win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.686

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.589

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Warta Sieradz win at 40%.
26′K. Noworyta scores for Wigry Suwałki on 22′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Warta Sieradz win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Wigry Suwałki win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Warta Sieradz win 4%)
39′36′ and it is 0–3: Wigry Suwałki have scored. 0–3 · 0–2–98
39′⚽ GOAL · 36' Warta Sieradz 0–3 Wigry Suwałki
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Warta Sieradz win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
42′We said Warta Sieradz at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Warta Sieradz 1–3 Wigry Suwałki
45′HALF-TIME Warta Sieradz 1–3 Wigry Suwałki
46′SECOND HALF Warta Sieradz 1–3 Wigry Suwałki
FTWarta Sieradz 1–3 Wigry Suwałki · Warta Sieradz win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Warta Sieradz win40%

Draw28%

Wigry Suwałki win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · warta sieradz winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Warta Sieradz a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · warta sieradz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warta Sieradz win	40%	36%	+4
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Wigry Suwałki win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	55%	−8
Both teams to score	52%	60%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Warta Sieradz or draw	67%	62%	+5
Warta Sieradz clean sheet	30%	–	–
Wigry Suwałki clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.6 8.6 5.6 2.3 1 9.7 13.0 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.3 5.0 2.1 3 3.2 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warta Sieradz down, Wigry Suwałki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,662 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warta Sieradz at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Wigry Suwałki away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Warta Sieradz, 1.21 for Wigry Suwałki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WAR 2–1 WIG · WIG 1–2 WAR · WAR 3–2 WIG · WIG 4–0 WAR

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

WARTA SIERADZ

LLWWDD0–4 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

WIGRY SUWAŁKI

WLDWWW3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 6–3 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
2	Wigry Suwałki	11	+9	22
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	+9	21
4	Swit	11	+8	20
5	Pelikan Łowicz	11	+4	20
6	Wisła Płock II	11	+4	18
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	+1	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	+2	15
9	Warta Sieradz	10	+2	15
10	Widzew II	10	+3	14
11	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
12	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13
13	Olimpia Elbląg	11	−4	13
14	ŁKS Łódź II	10	−3	11
15	Mławianka Mława	11	−10	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	11	−6	9
17	Troszyn	10	−12	7
18	Łomża	11	−15	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

The table