Warta Sieradz v Pelikan Łowicz prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Warta Sieradz 2–2 Pelikan Łowicz WARTA SIERADZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Warta Sieradz win~~51%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.868

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Warta Sieradz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warta Sieradz 51%, draw 26%, Pelikan Łowicz 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Warta Sieradz v Pelikan ŁowiczBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Warta Sieradz win51%

Draw26%

Pelikan Łowicz win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warta Sieradz

Pelikan Łowicz

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · warta sieradz winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off

51% The market39%

Us51%

~~Market~~39%

We make Warta Sieradz a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Warta Sieradz v Pelikan Łowicz~~1.66 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 23~~8 v 5

~~The market · Warta Sieradz win~~39% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Warta Sieradz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warta Sieradz win	51%	39%	+12
Draw	26%	26%	0
Pelikan Łowicz win	24%	35%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	62%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	38%	−9
Warta Sieradz or draw	76%	65%	+11
Warta Sieradz clean sheet	35%	–	–
Pelikan Łowicz clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 6.5 3.7 1 10.4 12.0 6.0 2.2 2 9.0 9.3 4.9 3 5.1 5.2 2.7 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warta Sieradz down, Pelikan Łowicz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warta Sieradz at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pelikan Łowicz away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Warta Sieradz, 1.05 for Pelikan Łowicz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PEL 1–2 WAR · WAR 0–5 PEL · PEL 3–2 WAR · WAR 2–0 PEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

WARTA SIERADZ

WDDLWW2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

PELIKAN ŁOWICZ

LWWDWL0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	14	+8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	+7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
6	Wisła Płock II	14	+4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	+4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	−7	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	14	−15	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3