Troszyn v Ząbkovia Ząbki prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Troszyn 1–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki TROSZYN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Troszyn win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.928

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Troszyn are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Troszyn 47%, draw 22%, Ząbkovia Ząbki 31%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Troszyn v Ząbkovia ZąbkiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Troszyn win47%

Draw22%

Ząbkovia Ząbki win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Troszyn

Ząbkovia Ząbki

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ząbkovia Ząbki	12	+4	20
17	Troszyn	12	−12	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · troszyn winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Troszyn a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Troszyn v Ząbkovia Ząbki~~2.06 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 20~~17 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Troszyn win

Published at 49%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Troszyn win	47%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Ząbkovia Ząbki win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Troszyn or draw	69%	–	–
Troszyn clean sheet	20%	–	–
Ząbkovia Ząbki clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.1 3.7 3.4 1 4.6 8.7 6.8 3.8 2 5.2 8.3 6.8 3.8 3 3.6 5.7 4.7 2.6 4 3.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Troszyn down, Ząbkovia Ząbki across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,678 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 112 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Troszyn at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ząbkovia Ząbki away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Troszyn, 1.66 for Ząbkovia Ząbki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRO 4–0 ZAB · ZAB 6–2 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

TROSZYN

WDLDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI

LWWLDW0–2 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	12	+16	29
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	12	+6	21
5	Wisła Płock II	13	+4	21
6	Ząbkovia Ząbki	12	+4	20
7	Swit	12	+3	20
8	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
9	Warta Sieradz	12	+1	18
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	12	+1	16
12	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
13	Widzew II	11	+1	14
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	12	−5	13
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	12	−12	10
18	Łomża	13	−18	3