Swit v Troszyn prediction · III Liga - Group 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Swit 3–0 Troszyn SWIT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Swit win~~41%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.537

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.271

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Swit win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Swit 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
2′KICK-OFF Swit v Troszyn
38′A goal for Swit on 37′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–12
38′We said Swit at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Swit 1–0 Troszyn
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Swit win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
45′HALF-TIME Swit 1–0 Troszyn
48′SECOND HALF Swit 1–0 Troszyn
50′We said Swit at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Swit win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
64′We said Swit at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
73′We said Swit at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Swit win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
78′Swit score on 78′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
78′We said Swit at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Swit 2–0 Troszyn
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Swit win: 41% at kick-off, 98% now
85′We said Swit at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′Swit find the net on 85′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Swit 3–0 Troszyn
FTFULL TIME Swit 3–0 Troszyn
FTSwit 3–0 Troszyn · Swit win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Swit are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Swit 41%, draw 23%, Troszyn 36%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Swit v TroszynBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Swit win41%

Draw23%

Troszyn win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Swit

Troszyn

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Swit	13	+5	23
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swit winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:52 · locked at kick-off

41% The market58%

Us41%

~~Market~~58%

We make Swit a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Swit v Troszyn~~1.78 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 11~~3 v 17

~~The market · Swit win~~58% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Swit win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swit win	41%	58%	−17
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Troszyn win	36%	21%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	66%	65%	+1
Both teams to score	67%	63%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	45%	45%	0
Swit or draw	64%	79%	−15
Swit clean sheet	19%	–	–
Troszyn clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 4.9 4.5 2.5 1 5.3 9.9 7.7 4.3 2 5.1 8.2 6.8 3.8 3 3.0 4.9 4.0 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Swit down, Troszyn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Swit at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Troszyn away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Swit, 1.66 for Troszyn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRO 5–0 SWI · SWI 2–1 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

SWIT

LWWWLW0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 2–7 · 3–1

TROSZYN

DLDLWD1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	13	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
6	Wisła Płock II	13	+4	21
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	13	+4	21
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3