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Swit v ŁKS Łódź II

Swit

2–7Full time

ŁKS Łódź II

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Swit 2–7 ŁKS Łódź II SWIT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Swit win~~40%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.623

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Swit win at 40%.
2′A goal for Swit on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–18–18
2′KICK-OFF Swit v ŁKS Łódź II
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Swit win: 40% at kick-off, 63% now
23′D. Charkiewicz scores for Swit on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
30′⚽ GOAL · 28' Swit 1–1 ŁKS Łódź II
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Swit 1–2 ŁKS Łódź II
41′⚽ GOAL · 2' Swit 1–2 ŁKS Łódź II · D. Charkiewicz
41′⚽ GOAL · 28' Swit 1–2 ŁKS Łódź II · T. Nawotka
41′⚽ GOAL · 37' Swit 1–2 ŁKS Łódź II · J. Lesniewski
45′ŁKS Łódź II ahead on 37′ through J. Lesniewski. 1–2. 1–2 · 12–22–65
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Swit win: 40% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' ŁKS Łódź II win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Swit win 12%)
45′HALF-TIME Swit 1–2 ŁKS Łódź II
48′SECOND HALF Swit 1–2 ŁKS Łódź II
52′We said Swit at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–23–67
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Swit win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Swit 1–3 ŁKS Łódź II
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Swit 1–4 ŁKS Łódź II
68′⚽ GOAL · 63' Swit 1–5 ŁKS Łódź II · W. Rzemyszkiewicz
72′⚽ GOAL · 70' Swit 1–6 ŁKS Łódź II
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Swit 2–6 ŁKS Łódź II
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Swit 2–7 ŁKS Łódź II
FTFULL TIME Swit 2–7 ŁKS Łódź II
FTSwit 2–7 ŁKS Łódź II · Swit win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Swit win40%

Draw23%

ŁKS Łódź II win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swit winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

40% The market51%

Us40%

~~Market~~51%

We make Swit a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · swit win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swit win	40%	51%	−10
Draw	23%	23%	0
ŁKS Łódź II win	36%	26%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+3
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	43%	+3
Swit or draw	64%	74%	−10
Swit clean sheet	20%	–	–
ŁKS Łódź II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.0 4.9 4.5 2.5 1 5.3 9.8 7.6 4.3 2 5.1 8.1 6.6 3.7 3 3.0 4.8 4.0 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Swit down, ŁKS Łódź II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,663 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Swit at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). ŁKS Łódź II away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Swit, 1.68 for ŁKS Łódź II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LKS 1–1 SWI · SWI 0–2 LKS · LKS 6–1 SWI · SWI 0–0 LKS

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

SWIT

WLLWWW2–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 4–2

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II

LWWDWD3–4 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	+9	21
4	Swit	11	+8	20
5	Pelikan Łowicz	11	+4	20
6	Wisła Płock II	11	+4	18
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	+1	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	+2	15
9	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
10	Widzew II	10	+3	14
11	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
12	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13
13	Olimpia Elbląg	11	−4	13
14	ŁKS Łódź II	10	−3	11
15	Mławianka Mława	11	−10	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	11	−6	9
17	Troszyn	10	−12	7
18	Łomża	11	−15	3