Home › Football › III Liga - Group 1 › Polonia Lidzbark Warm. v Łomża

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. v Łomża

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

3–2Full time

Łomża

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3–2 Łomża ŁOMŻA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Łomża win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win30%

Draw24%

Łomża win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · łomża winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Łomża a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win	30%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Łomża win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. or draw	55%	–	–
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. clean sheet	18%	–	–
Łomża clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 7.1 6.6 3.9 1 5.6 11.0 8.9 5.2 2.3 2 4.2 7.1 6.1 3.6 3 3.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Polonia Lidzbark Warm. down, Łomża across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,663 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Łomża away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., 1.75 for Łomża. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LOM 2–3 POL · POL 1–1 LOM

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

POLONIA LIDZBARK WARM.

DWLLDW2–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

ŁOMŻA

LLDLLL3–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	+9	21
4	Swit	11	+8	20
5	Pelikan Łowicz	11	+4	20
6	Wisła Płock II	11	+4	18
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	+1	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	+2	15
9	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
10	Widzew II	10	+3	14
11	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
12	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13
13	Olimpia Elbląg	11	−4	13
14	ŁKS Łódź II	10	−3	11
15	Mławianka Mława	11	−10	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	11	−6	9
17	Troszyn	10	−12	7
18	Łomża	11	−15	3