Polonia Lidzbark Warm. v ŁKS Łódź II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3–0 ŁKS Łódź II ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ŁKS Łódź II win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ŁKS Łódź II win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: ŁKS Łódź II was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 34–22–44
2′KICK-OFF Polonia Lidzbark Warm. v ŁKS Łódź II
5′Polonia Lidzbark Warm. score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 57–19–24
5′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 57–19–24
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1–0 ŁKS Łódź II
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' ŁKS Łódź II win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was ŁKS Łódź II win 43%)
7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' ŁKS Łódź II win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' ŁKS Łódź II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win 57%)
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1–0 ŁKS Łódź II · D. Kozera
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' ŁKS Łódź II win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was ŁKS Łódź II win 43%)
19′Polonia Lidzbark Warm. find the net on 18′. 2–0. 2–0 · 79–12–9
19′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 79–12–9
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2–0 ŁKS Łódź II
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' ŁKS Łódź II win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
39′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 2–0 · 84–11–5
45′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' ŁKS Łódź II win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
45′HALF-TIME Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2–0 ŁKS Łódź II
47′A red card for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. on 44′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 86–10–4
47′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
47′SECOND HALF Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2–0 ŁKS Łódź II
59′A goal for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. on 59′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3–0 ŁKS Łódź II
FTFULL TIME Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3–0 ŁKS Łódź II
FTPolonia Lidzbark Warm. 3–0 ŁKS Łódź II · ŁKS Łódź II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ŁKS Łódź II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 34%, draw 22%, ŁKS Łódź II 44%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Polonia Lidzbark Warm. v ŁKS Łódź IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win34%

Draw22%

ŁKS Łódź II win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

ŁKS Łódź II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · łks łódź ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make ŁKS Łódź II a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Polonia Lidzbark Warm. v ŁKS Łódź II~~1.74 – 2.00

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~16 v 13

~~The market · ŁKS Łódź II win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ŁKS Łódź II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win	34%	28%	+6
Draw	22%	25%	−3
ŁKS Łódź II win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	71%	60%	+11
Both teams to score	70%	62%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	88%	80%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	51%	40%	+11
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. or draw	56%	52%	+4
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. clean sheet	15%	–	–
ŁKS Łódź II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.1 4.5 4.8 3.2 1 3.9 8.7 7.9 5.2 2.7 2 3.7 7.0 6.8 4.5 2.3 3 2.2 4.1 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Polonia Lidzbark Warm. down, ŁKS Łódź II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). ŁKS Łódź II away: 3.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., 2.00 for ŁKS Łódź II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

POLONIA LIDZBARK WARM.

LLDWWL1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–3

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II

DWDWLD2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 7–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	13	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
5	Wisła Płock II	14	+4	22
6	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	+4	22
7	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3