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Pelikan Łowicz v Wigry Suwałki

Pelikan Łowicz

1–4Full time

Wigry Suwałki

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Pelikan Łowicz 1–4 Wigry Suwałki WIGRY SUWAŁKI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wigry Suwałki win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.532

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wigry Suwałki win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Wigry Suwałki 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
2′KICK-OFF Pelikan Łowicz v Wigry Suwałki
8′Wigry Suwałki ahead on 5′ through M. Kluska. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–69
8′We said Wigry Suwałki at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 13–19–69
8′⚽ GOAL · 5' Pelikan Łowicz 0–1 Wigry Suwałki · M. Kluska
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Wigry Suwałki win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
22′We said Wigry Suwałki at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Wigry Suwałki win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–71
45′A goal for Pelikan Łowicz on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–41–33
45′Little has changed for our model: Wigry Suwałki 41% before kick-off, 33% now. 1–1 · 27–41–33
45′HALF-TIME Pelikan Łowicz 1–1 Wigry Suwałki
47′SECOND HALF Pelikan Łowicz 1–1 Wigry Suwałki
49′A goal for Pelikan Łowicz on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–43–31
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Pelikan Łowicz 1–1 Wigry Suwałki
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Wigry Suwałki win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Wigry Suwałki win 31%)
53′Wigry Suwałki score on 53′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–19–75
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Pelikan Łowicz 1–2 Wigry Suwałki
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Wigry Suwałki win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Wigry Suwałki win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
54′We said Wigry Suwałki at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–2 · 5–19–76
54′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–19–76
65′We said Wigry Suwałki at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Wigry Suwałki win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
68′Wigry Suwałki find the net on 68′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–97
68′We said Wigry Suwałki at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–3 · 0–2–97
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Pelikan Łowicz 1–3 Wigry Suwałki
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Wigry Suwałki win: 41% at kick-off, 97% now
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
79′A goal for Wigry Suwałki on 79′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pelikan Łowicz 1–4 Wigry Suwałki
80′We said Wigry Suwałki at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
80′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Pelikan Łowicz 1–4 Wigry Suwałki
FTPelikan Łowicz 1–4 Wigry Suwałki · Wigry Suwałki win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wigry Suwałki are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pelikan Łowicz 32%, draw 28%, Wigry Suwałki 41%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Pelikan Łowicz v Wigry SuwałkiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pelikan Łowicz win32%

Draw28%

Wigry Suwałki win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pelikan Łowicz

Wigry Suwałki

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 9 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Pelikan Łowicz	12	+7	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wigry suwałki winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Wigry Suwałki a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pelikan Łowicz v Wigry Suwałki~~1.19 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 25~~3 v 2

~~The market · Wigry Suwałki win~~40% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wigry Suwałki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pelikan Łowicz win	32%	31%	+1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Wigry Suwałki win	41%	40%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Pelikan Łowicz or draw	59%	60%	−1
Pelikan Łowicz clean sheet	26%	–	–
Wigry Suwałki clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.6 9.9 7.3 3.4 1 8.5 12.9 8.4 3.9 2 5.4 7.3 5.0 2.3 3 2.2 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pelikan Łowicz down, Wigry Suwałki across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,673 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.4% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pelikan Łowicz at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Wigry Suwałki away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Pelikan Łowicz, 1.39 for Wigry Suwałki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PEL 1–0 WIG · WIG 2–1 PEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PELIKAN ŁOWICZ

WLWWDW4–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

WIGRY SUWAŁKI

LDWWWW1–3 · 1–1 · 6–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	12	+16	29
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Pelikan Łowicz	12	+7	23
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	12	+6	21
5	Wisła Płock II	12	+5	21
6	Ząbkovia Ząbki	12	+4	20
7	Swit	12	+3	20
8	Olimpia Zambrów	12	−1	17
9	Jagiellonia II	12	+1	16
10	Olimpia Elbląg	12	−3	16
11	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
12	Widzew II	11	+1	14
13	ŁKS Łódź II	12	−1	14
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	12	−5	13
15	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	12	−5	12
16	Mławianka Mława	12	−11	10
17	Troszyn	12	−12	10
18	Łomża	12	−16	3