Olimpia Zambrów v Mławianka Mława prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Olimpia Zambrów 1–1 Mławianka Mława OLIMPIA ZAMBRÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpia Zambrów win~~51%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.998

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olimpia Zambrów are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olimpia Zambrów 51%, draw 19%, Mławianka Mława 29%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Olimpia Zambrów v Mławianka MławaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Olimpia Zambrów win51%

Draw19%

Mławianka Mława win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olimpia Zambrów

Mławianka Mława

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olimpia zambrów winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 10:16 · locked at kick-off

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make Olimpia Zambrów a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olimpia Zambrów v Mławianka Mława~~2.49 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 13~~9 v 15

~~The market · Olimpia Zambrów win~~45% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olimpia Zambrów win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpia Zambrów win	51%	45%	+6
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Mławianka Mława win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	80%	66%	+14
Both teams to score	76%	68%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	93%	83%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	62%	46%	+16
Olimpia Zambrów or draw	71%	70%	+1
Olimpia Zambrów clean sheet	16%	–	–
Mławianka Mława clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 2.3 2.4 1 3.1 6.5 5.5 3.4 2 4.1 7.3 6.6 4.1 3 3.3 5.9 5.4 3.3 4 2.1 3.7 3.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpia Zambrów down, Mławianka Mława across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpia Zambrów at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mławianka Mława away: 2.17 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Olimpia Zambrów, 1.86 for Mławianka Mława. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MLA 0–1 OLI · OLI 1–1 MLA · MLA 1–1 OLI · OLI 3–2 MLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

OLIMPIA ZAMBRÓW

DDLWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA

LWWLLW4–7 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	13	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
6	Wisła Płock II	13	+4	21
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	13	+4	21
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3