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Olimpia Zambrów v Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Olimpia Zambrów

3–0Full time

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

III Liga - Group 1 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Olimpia Zambrów 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki OLIMPIA ZAMBRÓW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpia Zambrów win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.505

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpia Zambrów win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: Olimpia Zambrów was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–20–37
2′KICK-OFF Olimpia Zambrów v Lechia T. Mazowiecki
3′Much as we predicted: Olimpia Zambrów was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–20–37
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Olimpia Zambrów 1–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
40′A goal for Olimpia Zambrów on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Olimpia Zambrów win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Olimpia Zambrów win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Olimpia Zambrów win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
42′E. Matus scores for Olimpia Zambrów on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–13
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Olimpia Zambrów win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Olimpia Zambrów win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Olimpia Zambrów 2–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
45′HALF-TIME Olimpia Zambrów 2–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Olimpia Zambrów win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
46′SECOND HALF Olimpia Zambrów 2–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Olimpia Zambrów 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
53′⚽ GOAL · 35' Olimpia Zambrów 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki · E. Matus
53′⚽ GOAL · 46' Olimpia Zambrów 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki · E. Matus
53′⚽ GOAL · 48' Olimpia Zambrów 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki · J. Jakimiuk
FTFULL TIME Olimpia Zambrów 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FTOlimpia Zambrów 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki · Olimpia Zambrów win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olimpia Zambrów win43%

Draw20%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olimpia Zambrów

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olimpia zambrów winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

43% The market47%

Us43%

~~Market~~47%

We make Olimpia Zambrów a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olimpia zambrów win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpia Zambrów win	43%	47%	−4
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Lechia T. Mazowiecki win	37%	29%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	78%	66%	+12
Both teams to score	76%	67%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	92%	82%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	60%	46%	+15
Olimpia Zambrów or draw	63%	71%	−7
Olimpia Zambrów clean sheet	14%	–	–
Lechia T. Mazowiecki clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.9%

0123450 2.0 2.8 3.1 2.1 1 3.0 6.9 6.5 4.3 2.2 2 3.6 6.9 6.8 4.6 2.4 3 2.6 5.0 5.0 3.4 4 2.8 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpia Zambrów down, Lechia T. Mazowiecki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,669 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpia Zambrów at home: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lechia T. Mazowiecki away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Olimpia Zambrów, 2.04 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LEC 0–5 OLI · OLI 2–2 LEC · OLI 1–2 LEC · LEC 0–1 OLI

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

OLIMPIA ZAMBRÓW

LLDDLW3–4 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI

DLLLWL1–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Pelikan Łowicz	12	+7	23
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	12	+6	21
5	Wisła Płock II	12	+5	21
6	Swit	12	+3	20
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	11	+1	17
8	Jagiellonia II	11	+2	16
9	Olimpia Elbląg	12	−3	16
10	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
11	Widzew II	10	+3	14
12	ŁKS Łódź II	11	+2	14
13	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13
15	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	12	−5	12
16	Mławianka Mława	12	−11	10
17	Troszyn	11	−13	7
18	Łomża	12	−16	3