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Olimpia Elbląg v Mławianka Mława

Olimpia Elbląg

2–1Full time

Mławianka Mława

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Miejski

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Olimpia Elbląg 2–1 Mławianka Mława OLIMPIA ELBLĄG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpia Elbląg win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.572

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Olimpia Elbląg win39%

Draw23%

Mławianka Mława win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Stadion Miejski

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olimpia elbląg winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Olimpia Elbląg a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olimpia elbląg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpia Elbląg win	39%	44%	−5
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Mławianka Mława win	39%	31%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	70%	65%	+5
Both teams to score	70%	67%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	49%	44%	+5
Olimpia Elbląg or draw	61%	69%	−8
Olimpia Elbląg clean sheet	17%	–	–
Mławianka Mława clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.3 4.4 4.4 2.7 1 4.4 9.1 7.7 4.7 2.2 2 4.4 7.7 6.9 4.2 3 2.7 4.7 4.2 2.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpia Elbląg down, Mławianka Mława across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,663 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpia Elbląg at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mławianka Mława away: 2.33 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Olimpia Elbląg, 1.82 for Mławianka Mława. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OLI 0–2 MLA · MLA 1–1 OLI

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

OLIMPIA ELBLĄG

LLWLLW1–3 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA

LLLWWL3–5 · 0–2 · 4–7 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	11	+14	26
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	+9	21
4	Swit	11	+8	20
5	Pelikan Łowicz	11	+4	20
6	Wisła Płock II	11	+4	18
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	10	+1	16
8	Jagiellonia II	10	+2	15
9	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
10	Widzew II	10	+3	14
11	Olimpia Zambrów	11	−4	14
12	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	11	−2	13
13	Olimpia Elbląg	11	−4	13
14	ŁKS Łódź II	10	−3	11
15	Mławianka Mława	11	−10	10
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	11	−6	9
17	Troszyn	10	−12	7
18	Łomża	11	−15	3