Olimpia Elbląg v Jagiellonia II prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Olimpia Elbląg 0–0 Jagiellonia II JAGIELLONIA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jagiellonia II win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.819

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jagiellonia II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olimpia Elbląg 34%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia II 41%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Olimpia Elbląg v Jagiellonia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Olimpia Elbląg win34%

Draw25%

Jagiellonia II win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

VenueStadion Miejski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olimpia Elbląg

Jagiellonia II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jagiellonia ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 10:16 · locked at kick-off

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Jagiellonia II a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olimpia Elbląg v Jagiellonia II~~1.43 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 16~~10 v 11

~~The market · Jagiellonia II win~~35% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jagiellonia II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpia Elbląg win	34%	38%	−4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Jagiellonia II win	41%	35%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	60%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
Olimpia Elbląg or draw	59%	65%	−6
Olimpia Elbląg clean sheet	21%	–	–
Jagiellonia II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.8 7.3 6.2 3.3 1 6.6 11.6 8.6 4.5 2 5.1 7.8 6.1 3.2 3 2.5 3.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpia Elbląg down, Jagiellonia II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpia Elbląg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Jagiellonia II away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Olimpia Elbląg, 1.58 for Jagiellonia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JAG 3–1 OLI · OLI 2–0 JAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

OLIMPIA ELBLĄG

WLLWWD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

JAGIELLONIA II

WLLDLL7–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	13	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
6	Wisła Płock II	13	+4	21
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	13	+4	21
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3