Mławianka Mława v Widzew II prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mławianka MławaDrawWidzew II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mławianka Mława 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mławianka Mława just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mławianka Mława 41%, draw 21%, Widzew II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Mławianka Mława v Widzew IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Mławianka Mława win41%

Draw21%

Widzew II win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mławianka Mława

Widzew II

7Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 21 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
16	Mławianka Mława	14	−10	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mławianka mława winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Mławianka Mława a 41% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mławianka Mława v Widzew II~~2.07 – 1.98

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~16 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mławianka Mława win	41%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Widzew II win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Mławianka Mława or draw	62%	–	–
Mławianka Mława clean sheet	14%	–	–
Widzew II clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.3 3.2 3.5 2.3 1 3.3 7.6 7.0 4.6 2.3 2 3.8 7.2 7.1 4.7 2.3 3 2.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mławianka Mława down, Widzew II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mławianka Mława at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Widzew II away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Mławianka Mława, 1.98 for Widzew II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WID 0–2 MLA · MLA 1–2 WID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA

WWLLWD4–1 · 4–3 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

WIDZEW II

LLDLDL2–3 · 3–6 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	14	+14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	+17	31
3	Swit	14	+8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	+7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	+4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	+4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	+4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	+2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	+1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	−3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	−1	17
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	−3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	−4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	−7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	−10	14
17	Troszyn	14	−15	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3