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Mławianka Mława v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Mławianka Mława
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Mławianka Mława win at 49%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Mławianka Mława was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–21–30
- 2′KICK-OFF Mławianka Mława v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 3′Mławianka Mława score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–15–15
- 3′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–15–15
- 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Mławianka Mława 1–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 70% now
- 25′Mławianka Mława find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–8–4
- 25′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–8–4
- 25′⚽ GOAL · 22' Mławianka Mława 2–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 87% now
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
- 37′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–3
- 40′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
- 45′HALF-TIME Mławianka Mława 2–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 46′Mławianka Mława ahead on 22′ through F. Lewandowski. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
- 46′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
- 46′SECOND HALF Mławianka Mława 2–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 48′A goal for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. on 47′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–19–9
- 48′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 72%. 2–1 · 72–19–9
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Mławianka Mława 2–1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
- 56′Polonia Lidzbark Warm. score on 56′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 37–37–26
- 56′We said Mławianka Mława at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 37–37–26
- 56′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 37–37–26
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Mławianka Mława 2–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 37% now
- 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Mławianka Mława win 35%)
- 61′We said Mławianka Mława at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–41–25
- 69′Mławianka Mława find the net on 68′. 3–2. 3–2 · 78–18–4
- 69′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 78%. 3–2 · 78–18–4
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Mławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 78% now
- 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Mławianka Mława win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
- 70′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 79–17–4
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
- 72′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
- 79′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
- 90′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
- FTFULL TIME Mławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- FTMławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · Mławianka Mława win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassMławianka Mława are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Mławianka Mława 49%, draw 21%, Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 30%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Mławianka Mława win49%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win30%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00
RoundGroup I · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Mławianka MławaMIN
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Mławianka Mława
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1
Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Mławianka Mława a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mławianka Mława win | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win | 30% | 32% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 65% | +9 |
| Both teams to score | 72% | 66% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 83% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Mławianka Mława or draw | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Mławianka Mława clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| Polonia Lidzbark Warm. clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept
MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA
POLONIA LIDZBARK WARM.
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 12 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 12 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 | Pelikan Łowicz | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 | Swit | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Olimpia Zambrów | 12 | −1 | 17 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 12 | −3 | 16 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 12 | −1 | 14 |
| 14 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 12 | −5 | 13 |
| 15 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 12 | −5 | 12 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 12 | −11 | 10 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 12 | −12 | 10 |
| 18 | Łomża | 12 | −16 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Weszlo
Wigry Suwałki
Pelikan Łowicz
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Wisła Płock II
Ząbkovia Ząbki
Swit
Olimpia Zambrów
Jagiellonia II
Olimpia Elbląg
Warta Sieradz
Widzew II
ŁKS Łódź II
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Troszyn
Łomża