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Model 1.2

Home › Football › III Liga - Group 1 › Mławianka Mława v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

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Mławianka Mława v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

Mławianka Mława
3–2Full time
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Mławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mławianka Mława win49%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.400
The market’s Brier score0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mławianka Mława win at 49%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Mławianka Mława was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–21–30
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Mławianka Mława v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  4. 3′Mławianka Mława score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–15–15
  5. 3′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–15–15
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Mławianka Mława 1–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 70% now
  8. 25′Mławianka Mława find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–8–4
  9. 25′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–8–4
  10. 25′⚽ GOAL · 22' Mławianka Mława 2–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  11. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 87% now
  12. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
  13. 37′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–3
  14. 40′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Mławianka Mława 2–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  16. 46′Mławianka Mława ahead on 22′ through F. Lewandowski. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  17. 46′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Mławianka Mława 2–0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  19. 48′A goal for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. on 47′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–19–9
  20. 48′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 72%. 2–1 · 72–19–9
  21. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Mławianka Mława 2–1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  22. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
  23. 56′Polonia Lidzbark Warm. score on 56′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 37–37–26
  24. 56′We said Mławianka Mława at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 37–37–26
  25. 56′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 37–37–26
  26. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Mławianka Mława 2–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  27. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 37% now
  28. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Mławianka Mława win 35%)
  29. 61′We said Mławianka Mława at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–41–25
  30. 69′Mławianka Mława find the net on 68′. 3–2. 3–2 · 78–18–4
  31. 69′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 78%. 3–2 · 78–18–4
  32. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Mławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  33. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 78% now
  34. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Mławianka Mława win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
  35. 70′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 79–17–4
  36. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
  37. 72′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
  38. 79′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
  39. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Mławianka Mława win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
  40. 90′We published Mławianka Mława at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  41. FTFULL TIME Mławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
  42. FTMławianka Mława 3–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · Mławianka Mława win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mławianka Mława are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mławianka Mława 49%, draw 21%, Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 30%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Mławianka Mława v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mławianka Mława win49%
Draw21%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mławianka Mława

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Polonia Lidzbark Warm.12−512
16Mławianka Mława12−1110

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mławianka mława winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market44%
Us49%
Market44%

We make Mławianka Mława a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Mławianka Mława v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.2.19 – 1.70
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 6 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 10 v 1216 v 15
The market · Mławianka Mława win44% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 13:28
Our probability · Mławianka Mława win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mławianka Mława win49%44%+5
Draw21%24%−3
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win30%32%−2
Over 2.5 goals74%65%+9
Both teams to score72%66%+6
Over 1.5 goals90%83%+7
Over 3.5 goals54%44%+10
Mławianka Mława or draw70%68%+2
Mławianka Mława clean sheet19%––
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%
0123450 2.7 3.3 3.1 1 4.3 8.0 6.4 3.6 2 4.9 8.1 6.8 3.9 3 3.6 5.9 4.9 2.8 4 3.2 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mławianka Mława down, Polonia Lidzbark Warm. across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsMLA 1–1 POL · POL 2–4 MLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA

LLWWLL0–2 · 4–7 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 2–4 · 1–2

POLONIA LIDZBARK WARM.

WLLDWW3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo12+1629
2Wigry Suwałki12+1125
3Pelikan Łowicz12+723
4Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki12+621
5Wisła Płock II12+521
6Ząbkovia Ząbki12+420
7Swit12+320
8Olimpia Zambrów12−117
9Jagiellonia II12+116
10Olimpia Elbląg12−316
11Warta Sieradz11015
12Widzew II11+114
13ŁKS Łódź II12−114
14Lechia T. Mazowiecki12−513
15Polonia Lidzbark Warm.12−512
16Mławianka Mława12−1110
17Troszyn12−1210
18Łomża12−163

The competition's standings before kick-off.