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Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki v Pelikan Łowicz

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
1–4Full time
Pelikan Łowicz

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–4 Pelikan Łowicz MAZOVIA MINSK MAZOWIECKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win52%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.895
The market’s Brier score0.855

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win at 52%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki v Pelikan Łowicz
  3. 3′Little has changed for our model: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
  4. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 0–1 Pelikan Łowicz
  5. 23′Pelikan Łowicz find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 24–25–52
  6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 52% at kick-off, 24% now
  7. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Pelikan Łowicz win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win 24%)
  8. 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–1 Pelikan Łowicz
  9. 36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–2 Pelikan Łowicz
  10. 44′35′ and it is 1–2: M. Rybus on the scoresheet for Pelikan Łowicz. 1–2 · 16–26–58
  11. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 52% at kick-off, 16% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–2 Pelikan Łowicz
  13. 48′SECOND HALF Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–2 Pelikan Łowicz
  14. 51′We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–26–60
  15. 67′We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–24–70
  16. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 52% at kick-off, 7% now
  17. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–3 Pelikan Łowicz
  18. 84′⚽ GOAL · 16' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–3 Pelikan Łowicz · O. Koper
  19. 84′⚽ GOAL · 32' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–3 Pelikan Łowicz · C. Sauczek
  20. 84′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–3 Pelikan Łowicz · M. Rybus
  21. 84′⚽ GOAL · 70' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–3 Pelikan Łowicz · M. Rybus
  22. 89′Pelikan Łowicz ahead on 70′ through M. Rybus. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  23. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  24. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–4 Pelikan Łowicz
  25. FTFULL TIME Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–4 Pelikan Łowicz
  26. FTMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–4 Pelikan Łowicz · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win52%
Draw23%
Pelikan Łowicz win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mazovia minsk mazowiecki winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
52% The market50%
Us52%
Market50%

We make Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2010 OCT 10:15
Our probability · mazovia minsk mazowiecki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win52%50%+3
Draw23%24%−1
Pelikan Łowicz win25%26%−1
Over 2.5 goals61%61%−1
Both teams to score60%62%−2
Over 1.5 goals82%80%+2
Over 3.5 goals39%41%−2
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw75%74%+1
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki clean sheet29%––
Pelikan Łowicz clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 5.2 4.9 3.4 1 7.7 10.5 6.2 2.6 2 7.7 9.3 5.8 2.5 3 4.9 6.0 3.7 4 2.4 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki down, Pelikan Łowicz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

MAZOVIA MINSK MAZOWIECKI

DWWWLD2–2 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

PELIKAN ŁOWICZ

LWLWWD1–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo11+1426
2Wigry Suwałki12+1125
3Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki11+921
4Swit11+820
5Pelikan Łowicz11+420
6Wisła Płock II11+418
7Ząbkovia Ząbki10+116
8Jagiellonia II10+215
9Warta Sieradz11015
10Widzew II10+314
11Olimpia Zambrów11−414
12Lechia T. Mazowiecki11−213
13Olimpia Elbląg11−413
14ŁKS Łódź II10−311
15Mławianka Mława11−1010
16Polonia Lidzbark Warm.11−69
17Troszyn10−127
18Łomża11−153

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.