Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki v Lechia T. Mazowiecki prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 3–1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki MAZOVIA MINSK MAZOWIECKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win~~50%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.300

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win at 50%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–21–29
3′KICK-OFF Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki v Lechia T. Mazowiecki
11′Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–15–14
11′We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–15–14
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 50% at kick-off, 71% now
27′A goal for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki on 27′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 88–8–4
27′We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–0 · 88–8–4
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 50% at kick-off, 88% now
36′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–3
39′We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
47′SECOND HALF Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
64′We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
73′Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki score on 72′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′We said Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 3–0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
90′Lechia T. Mazowiecki find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 3–1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FTFULL TIME Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 3–1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FTMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 3–1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 50%, draw 20%, Lechia T. Mazowiecki 29%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki v Lechia T. MazowieckiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win50%

Draw20%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mazovia minsk mazowiecki winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off

50% The market55%

Us50%

~~Market~~55%

We make Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki v Lechia T. Mazowiecki~~2.32 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 14~~5 v 14

~~The market · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win~~55% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win	50%	55%	−5
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Lechia T. Mazowiecki win	29%	22%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	77%	67%	+10
Both teams to score	74%	66%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	91%	85%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	57%	48%	+9
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw	71%	78%	−7
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki clean sheet	18%	–	–
Lechia T. Mazowiecki clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.3 2.7 2.7 1 3.7 7.3 6.0 3.5 2 4.7 7.9 6.8 4.0 3 3.6 6.1 5.2 3.0 4 2.1 3.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki down, Lechia T. Mazowiecki across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lechia T. Mazowiecki away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, 1.74 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept

MAZOVIA MINSK MAZOWIECKI

WWLDLL3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–3

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI

LLWLLD2–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	13	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	+5	21
6	Wisła Płock II	13	+4	21
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	13	+4	21
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	−1	16
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	−5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	13	−12	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3