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Łomża v Olimpia Zambrów

Łomża

0–2Full time

Olimpia Zambrów

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Stadion Miejski w Lomzy

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Łomża 0–2 Olimpia Zambrów ŁOMŻA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Łomża win~~55%

~~The market said~~20%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.921

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.281

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Łomża win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Łomża 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–24
1′KICK-OFF Łomża v Olimpia Zambrów
33′A goal for Olimpia Zambrów on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–24–51
33′We said Łomża at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–51
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Łomża 0–1 Olimpia Zambrów
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Łomża win: 55% at kick-off, 24% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Olimpia Zambrów win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Łomża win 24%)
45′We said Łomża at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
45′HALF-TIME Łomża 0–1 Olimpia Zambrów
47′SECOND HALF Łomża 0–1 Olimpia Zambrów
52′L. K. Mensah scores for Olimpia Zambrów on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–26–58
52′We said Łomża at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–26–58
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Łomża win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
56′We said Łomża at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
66′Olimpia Zambrów score on 65′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
66′We said Łomża at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Łomża 0–2 Olimpia Zambrów
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Łomża win: 55% at kick-off, 2% now
67′We said Łomża at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–67
67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Olimpia Zambrów
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Łomża win: 55% at kick-off, 9% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Łomża win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
87′Olimpia Zambrów score on 86′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Łomża 0–2 Olimpia Zambrów
FTFULL TIME Łomża 0–2 Olimpia Zambrów
FTŁomża 0–2 Olimpia Zambrów · Łomża win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Łomża are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Łomża 55%, draw 21%, Olimpia Zambrów 24%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Łomża v Olimpia ZambrówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Łomża win55%

Draw21%

Olimpia Zambrów win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

VenueStadion Miejski w Lomzy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Łomża

Olimpia Zambrów

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Olimpia Zambrów	12	−1	17
18	Łomża	12	−16	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · łomża winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

55% The market20%

Us55%

~~Market~~20%

We make Łomża a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 20%. We are 35 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Łomża v Olimpia Zambrów~~2.27 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 17~~18 v 8

~~The market · Łomża win~~20% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Łomża win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 20% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Łomża win	55%	20%	+35
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Olimpia Zambrów win	24%	57%	−33
Over 2.5 goals	71%	60%	+11
Both teams to score	68%	59%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	88%	80%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	51%	40%	+11
Łomża or draw	76%	43%	+33
Łomża clean sheet	24%	–	–
Olimpia Zambrów clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.1 3.3 2.6 1 5.2 8.4 5.7 2.8 2 6.2 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 4.7 6.5 4.7 2.3 4 2.7 3.8 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Łomża down, Olimpia Zambrów across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,673 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.4% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Łomża at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpia Zambrów away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Łomża, 1.46 for Olimpia Zambrów. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OLI 0–1 LOM · LOM 0–0 OLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

ŁOMŻA

LDLLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–3

OLIMPIA ZAMBRÓW

LDDLWW0–5 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	12	+16	29
2	Wigry Suwałki	12	+11	25
3	Pelikan Łowicz	12	+7	23
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	12	+6	21
5	Wisła Płock II	12	+5	21
6	Ząbkovia Ząbki	12	+4	20
7	Swit	12	+3	20
8	Olimpia Zambrów	12	−1	17
9	Jagiellonia II	12	+1	16
10	Olimpia Elbląg	12	−3	16
11	Warta Sieradz	11	0	15
12	Widzew II	11	+1	14
13	ŁKS Łódź II	12	−1	14
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	12	−5	13
15	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	12	−5	12
16	Mławianka Mława	12	−11	10
17	Troszyn	12	−12	10
18	Łomża	12	−16	3