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Model 1.1

Home › Football › III Liga - Group 1 › ŁKS Łódź II v Ząbkovia Ząbki

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ŁKS Łódź II v Ząbkovia Ząbki

ŁKS Łódź II
0–3Full time
Ząbkovia Ząbki

III Liga - Group 1 · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45
ŁKS Łódź II 0–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ŁKS Łódź II win59%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.969
The market’s Brier score0.678

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ŁKS Łódź II win at 59%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: ŁKS Łódź II was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–18–23
  3. 2′KICK-OFF ŁKS Łódź II v Ząbkovia Ząbki
  4. 18′Ząbkovia Ząbki find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 34–22–44
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' ŁKS Łódź II 0–1 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' ŁKS Łódź II win: 59% at kick-off, 34% now
  7. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Ząbkovia Ząbki win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was ŁKS Łódź II win 34%)
  8. 19′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–22–44
  9. 23′A goal for Ząbkovia Ząbki on 23′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 16–17–67
  10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' ŁKS Łódź II 0–2 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' ŁKS Łódź II win: 59% at kick-off, 16% now
  12. 24′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–2 · 16–17–68
  13. 28′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–2 · 14–17–69
  14. 34′Goals are coming at about the 4.3 we expected. 0–2 · 12–16–72
  15. 38′37′ and it is 0–3: Ząbkovia Ząbki have scored. 0–3 · 4–7–89
  16. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' ŁKS Łódź II 0–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  17. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' ŁKS Łódź II win: 59% at kick-off, 4% now
  18. 40′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–3 · 3–7–90
  19. 45′HALF-TIME ŁKS Łódź II 0–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  20. 46′SECOND HALF ŁKS Łódź II 0–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  21. FTFULL TIME ŁKS Łódź II 0–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki
  22. FTŁKS Łódź II 0–3 Ząbkovia Ząbki · ŁKS Łódź II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on ŁKS Łódź II v Ząbkovia ZąbkiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

ŁKS Łódź II win59%
Draw18%
Ząbkovia Ząbki win23%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ŁKS Łódź II

Ząbkovia Ząbki

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Ząbkovia Ząbki11117
12ŁKS Łódź II11214

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · łks łódź ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
59% The market42%
Us59%
Market42%

We make ŁKS Łódź II a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ŁKS Łódź II v Ząbkovia Ząbki2.69 – 1.65
Last six in III Liga - Group 1W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 14 v 1712 v 7
The market · ŁKS Łódź II win42% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:2014 OCT 15:14
Our probability · łks łódź ii win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ŁKS Łódź II win59%42%+16
Draw18%24%−6
Ząbkovia Ząbki win23%34%−11
Over 2.5 goals80%67%+13
Both teams to score74%68%+6
Over 1.5 goals93%86%+7
Over 3.5 goals62%47%+15
ŁKS Łódź II or draw77%66%+11
ŁKS Łódź II clean sheet20%––
Ząbkovia Ząbki clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.5%
0123450 2.1 1 3.4 6.3 4.9 2.7 2 4.8 7.5 6.1 3.4 3 4.1 6.5 5.3 2.9 4 2.8 4.4 3.6 5 2.5
under 2% 5% 12%+ŁKS Łódź II down, Ząbkovia Ząbki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in III Liga - Group 1 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II

WWDWDW4–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 7–2

ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI

WLWWLD2–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo121629
2Wigry Suwałki121125
3Pelikan Łowicz12723
4Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki12621
5Wisła Płock II12521
6Swit12320
7Ząbkovia Ząbki11117
8Olimpia Zambrów12-117
9Jagiellonia II11216
10Olimpia Elbląg12-316
11Warta Sieradz11015
12ŁKS Łódź II11214
13Widzew II11114
14Lechia T. Mazowiecki12-513
15Polonia Lidzbark Warm.12-512
16Mławianka Mława12-1110
17Troszyn11-137
18Łomża12-163

The competition's standings.