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ŁKS Łódź II v Olimpia Elbląg

ŁKS Łódź II
1–1Full time
Olimpia Elbląg

III Liga - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
ŁKS Łódź II 1–1 Olimpia Elbląg ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ŁKS Łódź II win61%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.062
The market’s Brier score0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ŁKS Łódź II win at 61%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: ŁKS Łódź II was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
  3. 2′KICK-OFF ŁKS Łódź II v Olimpia Elbląg
  4. 8′ŁKS Łódź II find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–12–8
  5. 8′We published ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–12–8
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' ŁKS Łódź II 1–0 Olimpia Elbląg
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' ŁKS Łódź II win: 61% at kick-off, 80% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–7
  9. 34′A goal for Olimpia Elbląg on 33′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 53–26–20
  10. 34′⚽ GOAL · 33' ŁKS Łódź II 1–1 Olimpia Elbląg
  11. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' ŁKS Łódź II win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
  12. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' ŁKS Łódź II win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
  13. 45′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–31–20
  14. 45′HALF-TIME ŁKS Łódź II 1–1 Olimpia Elbląg
  15. 46′SECOND HALF ŁKS Łódź II 1–1 Olimpia Elbląg
  16. 55′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–36–19
  17. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' ŁKS Łódź II win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
  18. 63′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
  19. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was ŁKS Łódź II win 39%)
  20. 69′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–16
  21. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' ŁKS Łódź II win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
  22. 74′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
  23. 79′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–67–11
  24. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' ŁKS Łódź II win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
  25. 81′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
  26. 84′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–7
  27. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' ŁKS Łódź II win: 61% at kick-off, 10% now
  28. 90′We said ŁKS Łódź II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–89–4
  29. FTFULL TIME ŁKS Łódź II 1–1 Olimpia Elbląg
  30. FTŁKS Łódź II 1–1 Olimpia Elbląg · ŁKS Łódź II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ŁKS Łódź II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ŁKS Łódź II 61%, draw 19%, Olimpia Elbląg 19%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on ŁKS Łódź II v Olimpia ElblągBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ŁKS Łódź II win61%
Draw19%
Olimpia Elbląg win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ŁKS Łódź II

Olimpia Elbląg

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Olimpia Elbląg12−316
13ŁKS Łódź II12−114

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · łks łódź ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:54 · locked at kick-off
61% The market47%
Us61%
Market47%

We make ŁKS Łódź II a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ŁKS Łódź II v Olimpia Elbląg2.42 – 1.29
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 14 v 1613 v 10
The market · ŁKS Łódź II win47% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65%70% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 11:45
Our probability · ŁKS Łódź II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ŁKS Łódź II win61%47%+14
Draw19%26%−7
Olimpia Elbląg win19%27%−8
Over 2.5 goals71%57%+14
Both teams to score65%59%+6
Over 1.5 goals88%78%+10
Over 3.5 goals50%36%+14
ŁKS Łódź II or draw81%73%+8
ŁKS Łódź II clean sheet28%––
Olimpia Elbląg clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%
0123450 3.2 3.0 2.2 1 5.8 8.1 4.9 2.2 2 7.1 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 5.6 7.0 4.5 4 3.5 4.3 2.7 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+ŁKS Łódź II down, Olimpia Elbląg across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsOLI 1–1 LKS · LKS 3–1 OLI · OLI 1–3 LKS · LKS 1–1 OLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II

WDWDWL2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 7–2 · 0–3

OLIMPIA ELBLĄG

LWLLWW1–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo12+1629
2Wigry Suwałki12+1125
3Pelikan Łowicz12+723
4Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki12+621
5Wisła Płock II12+521
6Ząbkovia Ząbki12+420
7Swit12+320
8Olimpia Zambrów12−117
9Jagiellonia II12+116
10Olimpia Elbląg12−316
11Warta Sieradz11015
12Widzew II11+114
13ŁKS Łódź II12−114
14Lechia T. Mazowiecki12−513
15Polonia Lidzbark Warm.12−512
16Mławianka Mława12−1110
17Troszyn12−1210
18Łomża12−163

The competition's standings before kick-off.