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Home › Football › III Liga - Group 1 › Lechia T. Mazowiecki v Widzew II

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Lechia T. Mazowiecki v Widzew II

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1–1Full time
Widzew II

III Liga - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1–1 Widzew II LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki win42%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.933
The market’s Brier score0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lechia T. Mazowiecki win at 42%.
  2. 3′Much as we predicted: Lechia T. Mazowiecki was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
  3. 3′KICK-OFF Lechia T. Mazowiecki v Widzew II
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–0 Widzew II
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–0 Widzew II
  6. 55′We expected about 4.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–36–30
  7. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lechia T. Mazowiecki win 33%)
  8. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  9. 63′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–42–28
  10. 64′A goal for Widzew II on 64′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
  11. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–1 Widzew II
  12. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
  13. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Widzew II win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
  14. 65′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
  15. 68′Lechia T. Mazowiecki score on 67′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–47–25
  16. 68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1–1 Widzew II
  17. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 28% now
  18. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Widzew II win 25%)
  19. 69′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–48–25
  20. 73′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–22
  21. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
  22. 78′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
  23. 82′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–13
  24. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
  25. 92′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  26. FTFULL TIME Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1–1 Widzew II
  27. FTLechia T. Mazowiecki 1–1 Widzew II · Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lechia T. Mazowiecki are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 42%, draw 21%, Widzew II 37%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Lechia T. Mazowiecki v Widzew IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lechia T. Mazowiecki win42%
Draw21%
Widzew II win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Widzew II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Widzew II11+114
14Lechia T. Mazowiecki12−513

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lechia t. mazowiecki winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:12 · locked at kick-off
42% The market38%
Us42%
Market38%

We make Lechia T. Mazowiecki a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lechia T. Mazowiecki v Widzew II2.08 – 1.93
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 30 AugW1 D0 L5 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 13 v 1414 v 13
The market · Lechia T. Mazowiecki win38% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 10:42
Our probability · Lechia T. Mazowiecki win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lechia T. Mazowiecki win42%38%+4
Draw21%25%−4
Widzew II win37%37%0
Over 2.5 goals76%65%+11
Both teams to score74%67%+7
Over 1.5 goals91%81%+10
Over 3.5 goals56%45%+11
Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw63%63%0
Lechia T. Mazowiecki clean sheet15%––
Widzew II clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.7%
0123450 2.4 3.2 3.4 2.2 1 3.5 7.7 6.9 4.4 2.2 2 4.0 7.4 7.0 4.5 2.2 3 2.8 5.1 4.9 3.1 4 2.7 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lechia T. Mazowiecki down, Widzew II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsLEC 3–1 WID · WID 0–2 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 30 Aug

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI

LLLWLL0–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

WIDZEW II

WLLLDL4–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–6 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Weszlo12+1629
2Wigry Suwałki13+1428
3Pelikan Łowicz13+423
4Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki12+621
5Wisła Płock II13+421
6Ząbkovia Ząbki12+420
7Swit12+320
8Olimpia Zambrów13+120
9Warta Sieradz12+118
10Olimpia Elbląg13−317
11Jagiellonia II12+116
12ŁKS Łódź II13−115
13Widzew II11+114
14Lechia T. Mazowiecki12−513
15Mławianka Mława13−1013
16Polonia Lidzbark Warm.13−612
17Troszyn12−1210
18Łomża13−183

The competition's standings before kick-off.