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Lechia T. Mazowiecki v Widzew II
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Widzew IIIII Liga - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Lechia T. Mazowiecki win at 42%.
- 3′Much as we predicted: Lechia T. Mazowiecki was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
- 3′KICK-OFF Lechia T. Mazowiecki v Widzew II
- 45′HALF-TIME Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–0 Widzew II
- 46′SECOND HALF Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–0 Widzew II
- 55′We expected about 4.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–36–30
- 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lechia T. Mazowiecki win 33%)
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
- 63′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–42–28
- 64′A goal for Widzew II on 64′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
- 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–1 Widzew II
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
- 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Widzew II win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
- 65′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
- 68′Lechia T. Mazowiecki score on 67′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–47–25
- 68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1–1 Widzew II
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 28% now
- 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Widzew II win 25%)
- 69′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–48–25
- 73′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–22
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
- 78′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
- 82′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–13
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
- 92′We said Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
- FTFULL TIME Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1–1 Widzew II
- FTLechia T. Mazowiecki 1–1 Widzew II · Lechia T. Mazowiecki win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Lechia T. Mazowiecki are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 42%, draw 21%, Widzew II 37%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Lechia T. Mazowiecki win42%
Widzew II win37%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00
RoundGroup I · matchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Lechia T. MazowieckiMIN
Widzew IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Widzew II
Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 1
Last match: 11 Oct · III Liga - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Lechia T. Mazowiecki a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki win | 42% | 38% | +4 |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Widzew II win | 37% | 37% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 65% | +11 |
| Both teams to score | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 81% | +10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
| Widzew II clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025/26Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 30 Aug
LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI
WIDZEW II
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 12 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 13 | +14 | 28 |
| 3 | Pelikan Łowicz | 13 | +4 | 23 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 | Swit | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Olimpia Zambrów | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Warta Sieradz | 12 | +1 | 18 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 13 | −3 | 17 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 | ŁKS Łódź II | 13 | −1 | 15 |
| 13 | Widzew II | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 14 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 12 | −5 | 13 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 13 | −10 | 13 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 13 | −6 | 12 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 12 | −12 | 10 |
| 18 | Łomża | 13 | −18 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Weszlo
Wigry Suwałki
Pelikan Łowicz
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Wisła Płock II
Ząbkovia Ząbki
Swit
Olimpia Zambrów
Warta Sieradz
Olimpia Elbląg
Jagiellonia II
ŁKS Łódź II
Mławianka Mława
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Troszyn
Łomża