Home › Football › III Liga - Group 1 › Jagiellonia II v Troszyn
Back
Jagiellonia II v Troszyn
Jagiellonia IITroszynIII Liga - Group 1 · WED 14 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Jagiellonia II win at 46%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Jagiellonia II v Troszyn
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Jagiellonia II 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
- 13′15′ and it is 0–0: Troszyn have scored. 0–0 · 45–25–31
- 16′16′ and it is 0–1: Troszyn have scored. 0–1 · 22–22–56
- 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Jagiellonia II 0–1 Troszyn
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Jagiellonia II win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
- 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Troszyn win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Jagiellonia II win 22%)
- 18′We said Jagiellonia II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–22–56
- 27′We said Jagiellonia II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 19–23–58
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Jagiellonia II win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
- 44′We said Jagiellonia II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 45′HALF-TIME Jagiellonia II 0–1 Troszyn
- 46′SECOND HALF Jagiellonia II 0–1 Troszyn
- 58′We said Jagiellonia II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Jagiellonia II win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
- 72′We said Jagiellonia II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
- FTFULL TIME Jagiellonia II 0–1 Troszyn
- FTJagiellonia II 0–1 Troszyn · Jagiellonia II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
Jagiellonia II win46%Troszyn win31%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00
Match timeline
All events
Jagiellonia IIMINTroszynEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Jagiellonia II
Troszyn
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 11 | 2 | 16 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 11 | -13 | 7 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Jagiellonia II a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia II win | 46% | 54% | −8 |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Troszyn win | 31% | 23% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Jagiellonia II or draw | 69% | 77% | −8 |
| Jagiellonia II clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
| Troszyn clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1
JAGIELLONIA II
TROSZYN
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Weszlo | 12 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Wigry Suwałki | 12 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Pelikan Łowicz | 12 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 |  Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Wisła Płock II | 12 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 |  Swit | 12 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ząbkovia Ząbki | 11 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Olimpia Zambrów | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 11 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Olimpia Elbląg | 12 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 |  Warta Sieradz | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 |  ŁKS Łódź II | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Widzew II | 11 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 12 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Mławianka Mława | 12 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 11 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Łomża | 12 | -16 | 3 |
The competition's standings.