Jagiellonia II v Swit prediction · III Liga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Jagiellonia II 1–3 Swit JAGIELLONIA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jagiellonia II win~~49%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.818

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.669

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jagiellonia II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jagiellonia II 49%, draw 23%, Swit 28%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Jagiellonia II v SwitBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Jagiellonia II win49%

Draw23%

Swit win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jagiellonia II

Swit

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Swit	12	+3	20
11	Jagiellonia II	12	+1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jagiellonia ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market41%

Us49%

~~Market~~41%

We make Jagiellonia II a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jagiellonia II v Swit~~1.93 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 20~~11 v 7

~~The market · Jagiellonia II win~~41% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jagiellonia II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia II win	49%	41%	+8
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Swit win	28%	34%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Jagiellonia II or draw	72%	66%	+6
Jagiellonia II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Swit clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.4 4.7 3.6 1 6.5 10.1 6.7 3.1 2 6.7 9.1 6.3 3.0 3 4.3 5.8 4.0 4 2.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia II down, Swit across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,678 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 112 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jagiellonia II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Swit away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Jagiellonia II, 1.40 for Swit. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAG 5–1 SWI · SWI 3–2 JAG · JAG 5–2 SWI · SWI 1–0 JAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept

JAGIELLONIA II

WWLLDL2–1 · 7–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

SWIT

LLWWWL1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 2–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	12	+16	29
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	12	+6	21
5	Wisła Płock II	13	+4	21
6	Ząbkovia Ząbki	12	+4	20
7	Swit	12	+3	20
8	Olimpia Zambrów	13	+1	20
9	Warta Sieradz	12	+1	18
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	−3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	12	+1	16
12	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
13	Widzew II	11	+1	14
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	12	−5	13
15	Mławianka Mława	13	−10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	12	−12	10
18	Łomża	13	−18	3