Jagiellonia II v Polonia Lidzbark Warm. prediction · III Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Jagiellonia IIDrawPolonia Lidzbark Warm.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Jagiellonia II 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jagiellonia II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jagiellonia II 51%, draw 23%, Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 26%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Jagiellonia II v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Jagiellonia II win51%

Draw23%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win26%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jagiellonia II

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · III Liga - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Jagiellonia II	14	−1	17
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jagiellonia ii winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Jagiellonia II a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jagiellonia II v Polonia Lidzbark Warm.~~1.99 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~11 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia II win	51%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Jagiellonia II or draw	74%	–	–
Jagiellonia II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.3 4.4 3.3 1 6.6 9.9 6.3 2.9 2 6.9 9.1 6.2 2.8 3 4.6 6.0 4.1 4 2.3 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia II down, Polonia Lidzbark Warm. across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 III Liga - Group 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: III Liga - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jagiellonia II at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Lidzbark Warm. away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Jagiellonia II, 1.36 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POL 0–3 JAG · JAG 4–1 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in III Liga - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept

JAGIELLONIA II

LLDLLD2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

POLONIA LIDZBARK WARM.

LDWWLW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weszlo	13	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	+14	28
3	Swit	14	+8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	+7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	13	+4	23
6	Wisła Płock II	14	+4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	+4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	13	+2	21
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	+1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	−3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	−1	17
12	Widzew II	13	0	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	−1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	−7	14
15	Mławianka Mława	14	−10	14
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	−6	12
17	Troszyn	14	−15	11
18	Łomża	13	−18	3