Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › II Liga - East › Znicz Pruszków v Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Back
Poland flag

Znicz Pruszków v Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Znicz Pruszków
1–0Full time
Rekord Bielsko-Biała

II Liga - East · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion MZOS Znicz

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Znicz Pruszków 1–0 Rekord Bielsko-Biała ZNICZ PRUSZKÓW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Znicz Pruszków win54%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.314
The market’s Brier score0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Znicz Pruszków win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Znicz Pruszków 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Znicz Pruszków v Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  4. 3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  5. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Znicz Pruszków win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  6. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  7. 45′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–37–21
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Znicz Pruszków 0–0 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  9. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Znicz Pruszków 0–0 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  11. 52′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
  12. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Znicz Pruszków win 38%)
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–43–19
  14. 61′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  15. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Znicz Pruszków win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
  16. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Znicz Pruszków · On: A. Bartoszewicz · Off: B. Mazurek
  17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Rekord Bielsko-Biała · On: P. Wyroba · Off: A. Gibiec
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Rekord Bielsko-Biała · On: G. Kasprowicz · Off: D. Scislak
  19. 68′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
  20. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  21. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rekord Bielsko-Biała · On: M. Hornik · Off: D. Swiderski
  22. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Znicz Pruszków
  23. 73′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Znicz Pruszków win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  25. 78′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
  26. 79′A goal for Znicz Pruszków on 79′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  27. 79′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  28. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Znicz Pruszków 1–0 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  29. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Znicz Pruszków win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
  30. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Znicz Pruszków win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
  31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Znicz Pruszków · On: A. Redlinski · Off: M. Broniewski
  32. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Znicz Pruszków win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
  33. 86′We said Znicz Pruszków at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  34. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Znicz Pruszków · On: D. Szafranski · Off: A. Ratajczyk
  35. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rekord Bielsko-Biała · On: K. Gumolka · Off: J. Rys
  36. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rekord Bielsko-Biała · On: J. Kempny · Off: M. Tekieli
  37. FTFULL TIME Znicz Pruszków 1–0 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  38. FTZnicz Pruszków 1–0 Rekord Bielsko-Biała · Znicz Pruszków win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Znicz Pruszków are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Znicz Pruszków 54%, draw 23%, Rekord Bielsko-Biała 22%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Znicz Pruszków v Rekord Bielsko-BiałaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Znicz Pruszków win54%
Draw23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion MZOS Znicz

Line-ups

Znicz Pruszków

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Znicz Pruszków

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 9 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków11+1226
8Rekord Bielsko-Biała11+417

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Znicz Pruszków

Formation not confirmed

23 K. Napieraj

5 M. Broniewski

6 M. Pawlik

7 D. Barnowski

8 A. Nadolski

10 J. Jach

11 T. Proczek

13 B. Mazurek

14 V. Okhronchuk

17 A. Kazimierczak

77 A. Ratajczyk

Coach · Lukasz Smolarow

Substitutes

1 · N. Gzowski

9 · A. Bartoszewicz

15 · M. Glowinski

16 · D. Szafranski

– · F. Drabik

19 · M. Karol

21 · A. Redlinski

25 · J. Kosmalski

– · O. Garbinski

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Formation not confirmed

39 W. Kaczorowski

33 D. Mazurek

30 K. Kareta

3 J. Sobocinski

16 D. Pawlowski

6 D. Scislak

17 A. Gibiec

10 J. Rys

21 M. Tekieli

77 P. Ceglarz

11 D. Swiderski

Coach · –

Substitutes

71 · S. Sobolewski

32 · K. Gumolka

14 · M. Hornik

80 · G. Kasprowicz

18 · J. Kempny

91 · M. Klichowicz

24 · L. Poznanski

67 · F. Sapinski

75 · P. Wyroba

Our number · znicz pruszków winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
54% The market53%
Us54%
Market53%

We make Znicz Pruszków a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Znicz Pruszków v Rekord Bielsko-Biała1.79 – 1.05
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 AugW5 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 26 v 171 v 8
The market · Znicz Pruszków win53% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Znicz Pruszków win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Znicz Pruszków win54%53%+1
Draw23%24%−1
Rekord Bielsko-Biała win22%23%−1
Over 2.5 goals54%60%−6
Both teams to score53%61%−8
Over 1.5 goals77%80%−3
Over 3.5 goals32%41%−9
Znicz Pruszków or draw78%77%+1
Znicz Pruszków clean sheet36%––
Rekord Bielsko-Biała clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%
0123450 6.3 6.2 3.3 1 10.5 10.9 5.7 2.0 2 9.3 9.5 5.0 3 5.5 5.7 3.0 4 2.6 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Znicz Pruszków down, Rekord Bielsko-Biała across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 Aug

ZNICZ PRUSZKÓW

WWDWWW3–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 1–0

REKORD BIELSKO-BIAŁA

LWWWLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków11+1226
2Tychy 7112+1226
3Górnik Łęczna12+720
4Olimpia Grudziądz12−219
5Hutnik Kraków12+318
6Podhale Nowy Targ11+218
7Chojniczanka Chojnice12+118
8Rekord Bielsko-Biała11+417
9Zawisza Bydgoszcz11+316
10Sandecja Nowy Sącz11+316
11Stal Stalowa Wola12−316
12Lechia Zielona Góra11+215
13Avia Świdnik11−314
14Legia Warszawa II12+213
15Śląsk Wrocław II11−310
16Świt Skolwin12−149
17Sokół Kleczew11−138
18Resovia Rzeszów11−134

The competition's standings before kick-off.