Zawisza Bydgoszcz v Znicz Pruszków prediction · II Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 0–1 Znicz Pruszków ZNICZ PRUSZKÓW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Znicz Pruszków win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.569

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Znicz Pruszków win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Znicz Pruszków 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–24–40
15′Little has changed for our model: Znicz Pruszków 40% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
64′We said Znicz Pruszków at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 24–50–26
75′D. Barnowski scores for Znicz Pruszków on 69′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Znicz Pruszków win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Znicz Pruszków win: 40% at kick-off, 26% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Znicz Pruszków win 26%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Znicz Pruszków win: 40% at kick-off, 83% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Zawisza Bydgoszcz
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Zawisza Bydgoszcz
FTFULL TIME Zawisza Bydgoszcz 0–1 Znicz Pruszków
FTZawisza Bydgoszcz 0–1 Znicz Pruszków · Znicz Pruszków win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Zawisza Bydgoszcz win36%

Draw24%

Znicz Pruszków win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:30

Line-ups

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Znicz Pruszków

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Znicz Pruszków

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	10	+11	23
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	10	+4	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Oczkowski

2 M. Dziarkowski

4 S. Golak

8 K. Bogusiewicz

9 F. Kozlowski

10 M. Kona

13 J. Juskiewicz

17 M. Stepien

21 W. Szumilas

24 M. Staniak

77 M. Cywinski

Coach · Adrian Stawski

Substitutes

46 · T. Wojciechowski

3 · M. Slawek

6 · R. Kanach

11 · S. Rak

20 · I. Abdelhamid

25 · J. Lukowski

27 · B. Kusmierczyk

90 · M. Mas

23 · K. Nowak

Znicz Pruszków

Formation not confirmed

23 K. Napieraj

6 M. Pawlik

7 D. Barnowski

8 A. Nadolski

10 J. Jach

11 T. Proczek

13 B. Mazurek

14 V. Okhronchuk

17 A. Kazimierczak

20 M. Borecki

77 A. Ratajczyk

Coach · Lukasz Smolarow

Substitutes

1 · N. Gzowski

5 · M. Broniewski

9 · A. Bartoszewicz

15 · M. Glowinski

16 · D. Szafranski

21 · A. Redlinski

25 · J. Kosmalski

Our number · znicz pruszków winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Znicz Pruszków a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · znicz pruszków win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zawisza Bydgoszcz win	36%	36%	0
Draw	24%	26%	−1
Znicz Pruszków win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	64%	−6
Both teams to score	60%	66%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	44%	−9
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or draw	60%	61%	−1
Zawisza Bydgoszcz clean sheet	22%	–	–
Znicz Pruszków clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.3 7.6 5.9 3.1 1 7.2 11.1 8.3 4.3 2 5.3 7.9 6.0 3.1 3 2.6 3.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zawisza Bydgoszcz down, Znicz Pruszków across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,628 II Liga - East matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Znicz Pruszków away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Zawisza Bydgoszcz, 1.55 for Znicz Pruszków. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in II Liga - East

ZAWISZA BYDGOSZCZ

WWDDDL4–1 · 4–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

ZNICZ PRUSZKÓW

DWWDWW1–1 · 3–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	10	+11	23
2	Górnik Łęczna	10	+11	20
3	Tychy 71	10	+8	20
4	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	+2	18
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	11	+4	17
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	10	+4	16
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	11	+3	16
8	Hutnik Kraków	10	+3	15
9	Lechia Zielona Góra	11	+2	15
10	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	0	15
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	10	−3	15
12	Avia Świdnik	11	−3	14
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	11	−4	13
14	Legia Warszawa II	10	+3	12
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	10	−3	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	10	−12	8
17	Świt Skolwin	11	−14	8
18	Resovia Rzeszów	10	−12	4