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Model 1.2

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Zawisza Bydgoszcz v Świt Skolwin

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
4–2Full time
Świt Skolwin

II Liga - East · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 4–2 Świt Skolwin ZAWISZA BYDGOSZCZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zawisza Bydgoszcz win54%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.317
The market’s Brier score0.290

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zawisza Bydgoszcz win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zawisza Bydgoszcz v Świt Skolwin
  4. 5′We said Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–14–10
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1–0 Świt Skolwin
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win: 54% at kick-off, 76% now
  7. 6′A goal for Zawisza Bydgoszcz on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–10
  8. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Świt Skolwin
  9. 23′We said Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–2
  10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2–0 Świt Skolwin
  11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win: 54% at kick-off, 91% now
  12. 24′Zawisza Bydgoszcz score on 24′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–2
  13. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2–1 Świt Skolwin
  14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win: 54% at kick-off, 76% now
  15. 40′Świt Skolwin find the net on 39′. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–17–7
  16. 40′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–5–2
  17. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3–1 Świt Skolwin
  18. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
  19. 42′A goal for Zawisza Bydgoszcz on 41′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 93–5–1
  20. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
  21. 45′SECOND HALF Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3–1 Świt Skolwin
  22. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Świt Skolwin
  23. 46′HALF-TIME Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3–1 Świt Skolwin
  24. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Świt Skolwin · On: D. Szwiec · Off: A. Kifert
  25. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Świt Skolwin
  26. 51′We said Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  27. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  28. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Świt Skolwin · On: A. Wozniak · Off: D. Kisly
  29. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: K. Bogusiewicz · Off: B. Kusmierczyk
  30. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Świt Skolwin · On: K. Ropski · Off: K. Zendelek
  32. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: S. Rak · Off: J. Lukowski
  33. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: K. Nowak · Off: M. Dziarkowski
  34. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: M. Mas · Off: F. Kozlowski
  35. 83′We said Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Świt Skolwin · On: K. Golebiewski · Off: M. Koziara
  37. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: M. Kalitta · Off: M. Stepien
  38. 86′Świt Skolwin score on 86′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  39. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3–2 Świt Skolwin
  40. 87′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  41. 87′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  42. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Zawisza Bydgoszcz 4–2 Świt Skolwin
  43. 88′Zawisza Bydgoszcz find the net on 87′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  44. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Świt Skolwin
  45. FTFULL TIME Zawisza Bydgoszcz 4–2 Świt Skolwin
  46. FTZawisza Bydgoszcz 4–2 Świt Skolwin · Zawisza Bydgoszcz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zawisza Bydgoszcz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 54%, draw 22%, Świt Skolwin 24%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Zawisza Bydgoszcz v Świt SkolwinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Zawisza Bydgoszcz win54%
Draw22%
Świt Skolwin win24%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Świt Skolwin

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 17 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Zawisza Bydgoszcz12+216
17Świt Skolwin12−149

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zawisza bydgoszcz winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
54% The market56%
Us54%
Market56%

We make Zawisza Bydgoszcz a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zawisza Bydgoszcz v Świt Skolwin2.04 – 1.31
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 4 SeptW0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 16 v 911 v 17
The market · Zawisza Bydgoszcz win56% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:44
Our probability · Zawisza Bydgoszcz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zawisza Bydgoszcz win54%56%−2
Draw22%23%−1
Świt Skolwin win24%21%+3
Over 2.5 goals65%62%+3
Both teams to score63%60%+3
Over 1.5 goals85%82%+3
Over 3.5 goals43%42%+1
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or draw76%79%−3
Zawisza Bydgoszcz clean sheet27%––
Świt Skolwin clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%
0123450 3.8 4.5 3.1 1 7.1 9.5 6.1 2.7 2 7.3 9.4 6.1 2.7 3 5.0 6.4 4.1 4 2.6 3.3 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zawisza Bydgoszcz down, Świt Skolwin across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsSWI 2–1 ZAW · ZAW 0–1 SWI · SWI 3–3 ZAW · ZAW 0–1 SWI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 4 Sept

ZAWISZA BYDGOSZCZ

DDDLLL3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–4

ŚWIT SKOLWIN

WLLWLD4–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków12+1329
2Tychy 7112+1226
3Górnik Łęczna12+720
4Sandecja Nowy Sącz12+419
5Podhale Nowy Targ12+219
6Olimpia Grudziądz12−219
7Hutnik Kraków12+318
8Chojniczanka Chojnice12+118
9Rekord Bielsko-Biała12+317
10Avia Świdnik12−217
11Zawisza Bydgoszcz12+216
12Lechia Zielona Góra12+216
13Stal Stalowa Wola12−316
14Legia Warszawa II12+213
15Śląsk Wrocław II12−410
16Sokół Kleczew12−139
17Świt Skolwin12−149
18Resovia Rzeszów12−135

The competition's standings before kick-off.