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Model 1.2

Home › Football › II Liga - East › Świt Skolwin v Olimpia Grudziądz

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Świt Skolwin v Olimpia Grudziądz

Świt Skolwin
1–1Full time
Olimpia Grudziądz

II Liga - East · SAT 17 OCT · Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Świt Skolwin 1–1 Olimpia Grudziądz OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Olimpia Grudziądz win44%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.895
The market’s Brier score0.888

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpia Grudziądz win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Olimpia Grudziądz 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 33–23–44
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Świt Skolwin v Olimpia Grudziądz
  4. 5′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 15–18–68
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Świt Skolwin 0–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Olimpia Grudziądz win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 6′Olimpia Grudziądz score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–18–68
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–19–69
  9. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Świt Skolwin 1–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
  10. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Olimpia Grudziądz win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
  11. 31′Świt Skolwin find the net on 31′. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–30–40
  12. 38′Świt Skolwin level it on 31′ through D. Kort. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–32–38
  13. 38′Little has changed for our model: Olimpia Grudziądz 44% before kick-off, 38% now. 1–1 · 30–32–38
  14. 45′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 29–35–36
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Świt Skolwin 1–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
  16. 46′HALF-TIME Świt Skolwin 1–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
  17. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Olimpia Grudziądz win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  18. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Olimpia Grudziądz win 34%)
  19. 57′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 26–42–32
  20. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Olimpia Grudziądz
  21. 63′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–47–29
  22. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Olimpia Grudziądz
  23. 71′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
  24. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Świt Skolwin · On: K. Golebiewski · Off: K. Zendelek
  25. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Olimpia Grudziądz win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
  26. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Świt Skolwin
  27. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' S. Nowicki · Świt Skolwin
  28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: K. Cichon · Off: D. Jastrzembski
  29. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: W. Szafranek · Off: D. Olejarka
  30. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: D. Baldyga · Off: A. Siemaszko
  31. 77′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
  32. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Olimpia Grudziądz
  33. 81′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
  34. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Olimpia Grudziądz win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  35. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Olimpia Grudziądz
  36. 85′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
  37. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Świt Skolwin · On: K. Ropski · Off: M. Koziara
  38. 92′We said Olimpia Grudziądz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
  39. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Olimpia Grudziądz win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  40. 93′1–1 at the end. Our 44% on Olimpia Grudziądz misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  41. FTFULL TIME Świt Skolwin 1–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
  42. FTŚwit Skolwin 1–1 Olimpia Grudziądz · Olimpia Grudziądz win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olimpia Grudziądz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Świt Skolwin 33%, draw 23%, Olimpia Grudziądz 44%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Świt Skolwin v Olimpia GrudziądzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Świt Skolwin win33%
Draw23%
Olimpia Grudziądz win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski Skolwin

Line-ups

Świt Skolwin

Olimpia Grudziądz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Świt Skolwin

Olimpia Grudziądz

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 12 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Olimpia Grudziądz11−218
17Świt Skolwin11−148

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Świt Skolwin

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Abramowicz

5 J. Goral

7 A. Gorgon

8 M. Koziara

10 D. Kort

13 S. Kapelusz

15 K. Wojdak

19 D. Kisly

23 S. Nowicki

24 K. Zendelek

34 A. Kifert

Coach · –

Substitutes

76 · J. Rajczykowski

3 · D. Szwiec

4 · S. Rogala

9 · K. Ropski

11 · K. Nowak

17 · S. Zan

18 · K. Golebiewski

22 · A. Wozniak

77 · P. Pieslak

Olimpia Grudziądz

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Jerke

14 B. Brzek

25 B. Zbiciak

93 I. Tsyupa

32 P. Stolc

33 D. Abramowicz

44 D. Frelek

7 D. Olejarka

13 H. Jasiak

17 A. Siemaszko

22 D. Jastrzembski

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · J. Pawlak

5 · M. Wichtowski

11 · F. Wilak

16 · K. Fietz

10 · K. Cichon

19 · J. Stec

70 · F. Nowacki

29 · W. Szafranek

9 · D. Baldyga

Our number · olimpia grudziądz winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
44% The market50%
Us44%
Market50%

We make Olimpia Grudziądz a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Świt Skolwin v Olimpia Grudziądz1.48 – 1.76
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 8 v 1817 v 6
The market · Olimpia Grudziądz win50% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 14:12
Our probability · Olimpia Grudziądz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Świt Skolwin win33%26%+7
Draw23%24%−1
Olimpia Grudziądz win44%50%−6
Over 2.5 goals62%64%−2
Both teams to score63%65%−2
Over 1.5 goals83%83%0
Over 3.5 goals40%44%−4
Świt Skolwin or draw56%50%+6
Świt Skolwin clean sheet18%––
Olimpia Grudziądz clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%
0123450 4.2 6.9 6.1 3.6 1 5.9 10.2 8.8 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.4 6.4 3.8 3 2.2 3.7 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Świt Skolwin down, Olimpia Grudziądz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.78
Over 2.54 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsOLI 3–3 SWI · SWI 0–1 OLI · OLI 1–1 SWI · SWI 3–1 OLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 Aug

ŚWIT SKOLWIN

DWLLWL1–1 · 4–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ

LWDLWW1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków11+1226
2Tychy 7112+1226
3Górnik Łęczna11+820
4Hutnik Kraków11+418
5Podhale Nowy Targ11+218
6Olimpia Grudziądz11−218
7Rekord Bielsko-Biała11+417
8Zawisza Bydgoszcz11+316
9Sandecja Nowy Sącz11+316
10Lechia Zielona Góra11+215
11Chojniczanka Chojnice11015
12Avia Świdnik11−314
13Legia Warszawa II12+213
14Stal Stalowa Wola11−413
15Śląsk Wrocław II11−310
16Sokół Kleczew11−138
17Świt Skolwin11−148
18Resovia Rzeszów11−134

The competition's standings before kick-off.