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Stal Stalowa Wola v Śląsk Wrocław II

Stal Stalowa Wola

3–2Full time

Śląsk Wrocław II

II Liga - East · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Stal Stalowa Wola 3–2 Śląsk Wrocław II STAL STALOWA WOLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stal Stalowa Wola win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.362

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stal Stalowa Wola win at 45%.
2′KICK-OFF Stal Stalowa Wola v Śląsk Wrocław II
5′Little has changed for our model: Stal Stalowa Wola 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–32
17′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Śląsk Wrocław II
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Stal Stalowa Wola 1–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
25′25′ and it is 1–0: J. Jelen on the scoresheet for Stal Stalowa Wola. 1–0 · 69–19–13
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Stal Stalowa Wola win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
45′HALF-TIME Stal Stalowa Wola 1–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
46′SECOND HALF Stal Stalowa Wola 1–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
56′⚽ GOAL · 54' Stal Stalowa Wola 2–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Śląsk Wrocław II
60′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Śląsk Wrocław II
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Stal Stalowa Wola 2–1 Śląsk Wrocław II
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Śląsk Wrocław II · On: A. Rozum · Off: A. Wolosowski
66′⚽ GOAL · 64' Stal Stalowa Wola 2–1 Śląsk Wrocław II
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Stal Stalowa Wola 3–1 Śląsk Wrocław II
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Stal Stalowa Wola
74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' J. Jelen · Stal Stalowa Wola
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Śląsk Wrocław II · On: P. Mazan · Off: L. Coulibaly
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Stal Stalowa Wola 3–2 Śląsk Wrocław II
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Śląsk Wrocław II
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Stal Stalowa Wola · On: J. Czerwik · Off: A. Rogalski
FTFULL TIME Stal Stalowa Wola 3–2 Śląsk Wrocław II
FTStal Stalowa Wola 3–2 Śląsk Wrocław II · Stal Stalowa Wola win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stal Stalowa Wola win45%

Draw22%

Śląsk Wrocław II win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Stal Stalowa Wola

Formation not confirmed

33 M. Smylek

3 M. Grabowski

4 L. Furtak

9 J. Jelen

10 M. Hebel

11 P. Zaucha

23 M. Sliwa

30 A. Rogalski

44 A. Chrzanowski

77 D. Kaminski

87 K. Nawrocki

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. Harcinski

7 · M. Radecki

8 · K. Kort

16 · P. Zyra

18 · G. Nongo

19 · D. Wolny

21 · S. Kwapisz

43 · J. Czerwik

49 · J. Saj

Śląsk Wrocław II

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Klint

5 H. Muszynski

9 M. Stangret

11 J. Nsangou

17 L. Coulibaly

18 K. Borys

22 A. Zulewski

25 A. Wolosowski

38 D. Markowski

39 S. Rygiel

81 P. Sokolowski

Coach · Michal Hetel

Substitutes

12 · G. Korytkowski

3 · A. Rozum

7 · K. Danielewicz

14 · O. Czyzio

16 · J. Chodera

19 · D. Warchol

28 · D. Moskaluk

36 · P. Mazan

71 · I. Kobelczuk

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stal Stalowa Wola

Formation not confirmed

33 M. Smylek

3 M. Grabowski

4 L. Furtak

9 J. Jelen

10 M. Hebel

11 P. Zaucha

23 M. Sliwa

30 A. Rogalski

44 A. Chrzanowski

77 D. Kaminski

87 K. Nawrocki

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. Harcinski

7 · M. Radecki

8 · K. Kort

16 · P. Zyra

18 · G. Nongo

19 · D. Wolny

21 · S. Kwapisz

43 · J. Czerwik

49 · J. Saj

Śląsk Wrocław II

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Klint

5 H. Muszynski

9 M. Stangret

11 J. Nsangou

17 L. Coulibaly

18 K. Borys

22 A. Zulewski

25 A. Wolosowski

38 D. Markowski

39 S. Rygiel

81 P. Sokolowski

Coach · Michal Hetel

Substitutes

12 · G. Korytkowski

3 · A. Rozum

7 · K. Danielewicz

14 · O. Czyzio

16 · J. Chodera

19 · D. Warchol

28 · D. Moskaluk

36 · P. Mazan

71 · I. Kobelczuk

Our number · stal stalowa wola winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Stal Stalowa Wola a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stal stalowa wola win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stal Stalowa Wola win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Śląsk Wrocław II win	33%	25%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	66%	63%	+3
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	45%	43%	+2
Stal Stalowa Wola or draw	67%	75%	−8
Stal Stalowa Wola clean sheet	21%	–	–
Śląsk Wrocław II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.5 5.0 4.0 2.1 1 6.0 9.5 7.2 3.8 2 5.6 8.6 6.7 3.5 3 3.5 5.4 4.2 2.2 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Stalowa Wola down, Śląsk Wrocław II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,625 II Liga - East matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stal Stalowa Wola at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Śląsk Wrocław II away: 2.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Stal Stalowa Wola, 1.57 for Śląsk Wrocław II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–1 SLA · SLA 3–2 STA

Form · last six in II Liga - East

STAL STALOWA WOLA

LLDLWL0–2 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 2–4

ŚLĄSK WROCŁAW II

LLLLLW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	10	+11	23
2	Górnik Łęczna	10	+11	20
3	Tychy 71	10	+8	20
4	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	+2	18
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	11	+4	17
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	10	+4	16
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	11	+3	16
8	Lechia Zielona Góra	10	+4	15
9	Hutnik Kraków	10	+3	15
10	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	0	15
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	10	−3	15
12	Avia Świdnik	10	−4	11
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	10	−5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	+1	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	−2	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	10	−12	8
17	Świt Skolwin	10	−13	8
18	Resovia Rzeszów	10	−12	4