Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › II Liga - East › Stal Stalowa Wola v Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Back
Poland flag

Stal Stalowa Wola v Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Stal Stalowa Wola
1–0Full time
Sandecja Nowy Sącz

II Liga - East · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
Stal Stalowa Wola 1–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz STAL STALOWA WOLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stal Stalowa Wola win41%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.525
The market’s Brier score0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stal Stalowa Wola win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Stal Stalowa Wola 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Stal Stalowa Wola v Sandecja Nowy Sącz
  4. 9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Sandecja Nowy Sącz
  5. 27′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Stal Stalowa Wola · On: S. Kwapisz · Off: L. Furtak
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Stal Stalowa Wola 0–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz
  7. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Stal Stalowa Wola win 35%)
  8. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: A. Brenkus · Off: E. Kosinski
  9. 49′HALF-TIME Stal Stalowa Wola 0–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz
  10. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Stal Stalowa Wola win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  11. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–43–26
  12. 58′We said Stal Stalowa Wola at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–46–25
  13. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stal Stalowa Wola · On: M. Sliwa · Off: M. Radecki
  14. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stal Stalowa Wola · On: D. Wolny · Off: J. Jelen
  15. 67′We said Stal Stalowa Wola at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
  16. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: F. Piszczek · Off: M. Kolar
  17. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Stal Stalowa Wola win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  18. 74′We said Stal Stalowa Wola at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
  19. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: T. Divis · Off: P. Kielis
  20. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Stal Stalowa Wola · On: H. Tomalski · Off: D. Kaminski
  21. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Stal Stalowa Wola · On: P. Zyra · Off: A. Rogalski
  22. 80′We said Stal Stalowa Wola at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
  23. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Stal Stalowa Wola win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  24. 84′We said Stal Stalowa Wola at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  25. 86′We said Stal Stalowa Wola at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–0 · 93–7–0
  26. 86′Stal Stalowa Wola score on 86′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
  27. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Stal Stalowa Wola 1–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz
  28. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Stal Stalowa Wola win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
  29. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Stal Stalowa Wola win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 84%)
  30. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: Goku Roman · Off: D. Holan
  31. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: L. Gerstenstein · Off: K. Ogorzaly
  32. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Stal Stalowa Wola
  33. 90′We said Stal Stalowa Wola at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
  34. 94′1–0 at the end. Our 41% on Stal Stalowa Wola comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Stal Stalowa Wola 1–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz
  36. FTStal Stalowa Wola 1–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz · Stal Stalowa Wola win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stal Stalowa Wola are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stal Stalowa Wola 41%, draw 25%, Sandecja Nowy Sącz 34%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Stal Stalowa Wola v Sandecja Nowy SączBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stal Stalowa Wola win41%
Draw25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Stali Stalowa Wola

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stal Stalowa Wola

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 18 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Sandecja Nowy Sącz12+419
12Stal Stalowa Wola12−316

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stal stalowa wola winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
41% The market32%
Us41%
Market32%

We make Stal Stalowa Wola a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stal Stalowa Wola v Sandecja Nowy Sącz1.55 – 1.38
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 4 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 16 v 1912 v 6
The market · Stal Stalowa Wola win32% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 18:28
Our probability · Stal Stalowa Wola win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stal Stalowa Wola win41%32%+9
Draw25%27%−2
Sandecja Nowy Sącz win34%41%−7
Over 2.5 goals56%57%−1
Both teams to score59%61%−2
Over 1.5 goals79%78%+1
Over 3.5 goals34%38%−4
Stal Stalowa Wola or draw66%59%+7
Stal Stalowa Wola clean sheet25%––
Sandecja Nowy Sącz clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 5.7 7.3 5.2 2.4 1 8.1 11.5 7.8 3.6 2 6.4 8.6 5.9 2.8 3 3.3 4.5 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Stalowa Wola down, Sandecja Nowy Sącz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsSTA 0–0 SAN · SAN 2–3 STA · STA 2–1 SAN · SAN 2–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 4 Sept

STAL STALOWA WOLA

DLWLWW3–3 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 2–1

SANDECJA NOWY SĄCZ

LWDLDW1–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków12+1329
2Tychy 7112+1226
3Górnik Łęczna13+1323
4Olimpia Grudziądz13−122
5Zawisza Bydgoszcz13+419
6Sandecja Nowy Sącz12+419
7Podhale Nowy Targ12+219
8Rekord Bielsko-Biała13+318
9Hutnik Kraków13+218
10Chojniczanka Chojnice12+118
11Avia Świdnik12−217
12Stal Stalowa Wola12−316
13Lechia Zielona Góra13−416
14Legia Warszawa II12+213
15Sokół Kleczew13−1112
16Śląsk Wrocław II13−610
17Świt Skolwin13−169
18Resovia Rzeszów13−136

The competition's standings before kick-off.