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Sokół Kleczew v Śląsk Wrocław II

Sokół Kleczew

4–2Full time

Śląsk Wrocław II

II Liga - East · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02

Sokół Kleczew 4–2 Śląsk Wrocław II ŚLĄSK WROCŁAW II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Śląsk Wrocław II win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.708

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.596

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Śląsk Wrocław II win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Śląsk Wrocław II 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 33–22–45
1′KICK-OFF Sokół Kleczew v Śląsk Wrocław II
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Śląsk Wrocław II
9′Sokół Kleczew find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–21–23
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Sokół Kleczew 1–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Śląsk Wrocław II win: 45% at kick-off, 23% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Sokół Kleczew win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Śląsk Wrocław II win 44%)
10′We said Śląsk Wrocław II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 56–21–23
17′A goal for Sokół Kleczew on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 78–13–9
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Sokół Kleczew 2–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Śląsk Wrocław II win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
18′We said Śląsk Wrocław II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 79–13–9
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Śląsk Wrocław II win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
42′We said Śląsk Wrocław II at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–11–4
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 85–11–4
45′HALF-TIME Sokół Kleczew 2–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
46′SECOND HALF Sokół Kleczew 2–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Śląsk Wrocław II · On: D. Moskaluk · Off: L. Coulibaly
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Śląsk Wrocław II · On: A. Wolosowski · Off: A. Rozum
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Śląsk Wrocław II · On: I. Kobelczuk · Off: J. Janiszewski
56′Sokół Kleczew score on 56′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Śląsk Wrocław II
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Sokół Kleczew 3–0 Śląsk Wrocław II
67′Śląsk Wrocław II find the net on 67′. 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sokół Kleczew 3–1 Śląsk Wrocław II
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Śląsk Wrocław II · On: L. Zajaczkowski · Off: M. Tudruj
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sokół Kleczew · On: D. Dudzinski · Off: J. Antczak
72′A goal for Śląsk Wrocław II on 72′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 76–20–4
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sokół Kleczew 3–2 Śląsk Wrocław II
73′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 77–19–4
82′Sokół Kleczew score on 82′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Sokół Kleczew 4–2 Śląsk Wrocław II
83′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sokół Kleczew · On: J. Tkaczyk · Off: B. Juszczyk
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sokół Kleczew · On: O. Dari · Off: F. Adamski
86′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Śląsk Wrocław II · On: M. Krygowski · Off: M. Stangret
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Sokół Kleczew
FTFULL TIME Sokół Kleczew 4–2 Śląsk Wrocław II
FTSokół Kleczew 4–2 Śląsk Wrocław II · Śląsk Wrocław II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Śląsk Wrocław II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sokół Kleczew 33%, draw 22%, Śląsk Wrocław II 45%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Sokół Kleczew v Śląsk Wrocław IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sokół Kleczew win33%

Draw22%

Śląsk Wrocław II win45%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sokół Kleczew

Śląsk Wrocław II

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	12	−4	10
16	Sokół Kleczew	12	−13	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · śląsk wrocław ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make Śląsk Wrocław II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sokół Kleczew v Śląsk Wrocław II~~1.59 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~16 v 15

~~The market · Śląsk Wrocław II win~~38% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Śląsk Wrocław II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sokół Kleczew win	33%	37%	−4
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Śląsk Wrocław II win	45%	38%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	67%	62%	+5
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	46%	42%	+4
Sokół Kleczew or draw	55%	62%	−7
Sokół Kleczew clean sheet	15%	–	–
Śląsk Wrocław II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 5.8 5.6 3.5 1 4.8 9.3 8.6 5.4 2.6 2 3.9 7.2 6.7 4.3 2.1 3 2.1 3.8 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sokół Kleczew down, Śląsk Wrocław II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 II Liga - East matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sokół Kleczew at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Śląsk Wrocław II away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Sokół Kleczew, 1.90 for Śląsk Wrocław II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOK 0–2 SLA · SLA 2–4 SOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 5 Sept

SOKÓŁ KLECZEW

LDDLLD0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

ŚLĄSK WROCŁAW II

LLWLDL0–1 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	+13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	+12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	12	+7	20
4	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	12	+4	19
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	+2	19
6	Olimpia Grudziądz	12	−2	19
7	Hutnik Kraków	12	+3	18
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	12	+1	18
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	12	+3	17
10	Avia Świdnik	12	−2	17
11	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	12	+2	16
12	Lechia Zielona Góra	12	+2	16
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	12	−3	16
14	Legia Warszawa II	12	+2	13
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	12	−4	10
16	Sokół Kleczew	12	−13	9
17	Świt Skolwin	12	−14	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	12	−13	5