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Sandecja Nowy Sącz v Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
4–3Full time
Zawisza Bydgoszcz

II Liga - East · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 4–3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz SANDECJA NOWY SĄCZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz win47%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.427
The market’s Brier score0.349

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 39 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sandecja Nowy Sącz win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sandecja Nowy Sącz v Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  4. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Sandecja Nowy Sącz 0–1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  6. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: P. Kielis · Off: A. Brenkus
  7. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: P. Kowalik · Off: S. Kawala
  8. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: T. Divis · Off: K. Ogorzaly
  9. 48′We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
  10. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sandecja Nowy Sącz 0–1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  11. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
  12. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Sandecja Nowy Sącz win 11%)
  13. 49′Zawisza Bydgoszcz find the net on 45′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–65
  14. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sandecja Nowy Sącz
  15. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  16. 53′We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
  17. 53′We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–23
  18. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  19. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
  20. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Zawisza Bydgoszcz win 23%)
  21. 54′A goal for Sandecja Nowy Sącz on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–45–22
  22. 57′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–63 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  23. 57′HALF-TIME Sandecja Nowy Sącz 0–1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  24. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  25. 62′We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
  26. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  27. 69′We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
  28. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: M. Stepien · Off: S. Rak
  29. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: I. Abdelhamid · Off: B. Kusmierczyk
  30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: W. Szumilas · Off: J. Lukowski
  31. 72′We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–78
  32. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–2 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  33. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 3% now
  34. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 19%)
  35. 73′Zawisza Bydgoszcz score on 73′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–79
  36. 73′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–18–79
  37. 75′72′: M. Stepien on the scoresheet for Zawisza Bydgoszcz, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–17–81
  38. 81′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 13–78–9
  39. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: F. Kozlowski · Off: M. Mas
  40. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Zawisza Bydgoszcz · On: M. Kona · Off: R. Kanach
  41. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: F. Piszczek · Off: M. Zurawski
  42. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–2 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  43. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
  44. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Zawisza Bydgoszcz win 9%)
  45. 82′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–88
  46. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  47. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 1% now
  48. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Zawisza Bydgoszcz win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  49. 83′Sandecja Nowy Sącz find the net on 82′. 2–3 · 1–10–90
  50. 84′A goal for Zawisza Bydgoszcz on 83′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–9–91
  51. 84′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 9–84–7
  52. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3–3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  53. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Zawisza Bydgoszcz win 7%)
  54. 85′Sandecja Nowy Sącz score on 84′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 8–85–6
  55. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sandecja Nowy Sącz · On: L. Gerstenstein · Off: B. Szeliga
  56. 92′We said Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  57. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Sandecja Nowy Sącz 4–3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  58. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
  59. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Sandecja Nowy Sącz win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  60. 93′Sandecja Nowy Sącz find the net on 90′. 4–3. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  61. 93′7 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  62. 95′4–3 at the end. Our 47% on Sandecja Nowy Sącz comes in. 4–3 · 100–0–0
  63. FTFULL TIME Sandecja Nowy Sącz 4–3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz
  64. FTSandecja Nowy Sącz 4–3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz · Sandecja Nowy Sącz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sandecja Nowy Sącz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 47%, draw 25%, Zawisza Bydgoszcz 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sandecja Nowy Sącz v Zawisza BydgoszczBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sandecja Nowy Sącz win47%
Draw25%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 12

Line-ups

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 11 Oct · II Liga - East

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Zawisza Bydgoszcz11+316
11Sandecja Nowy Sącz11+316

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Formation not confirmed

30 B. Glogowski

3 W. Plesnierowicz

24 K. Slaby

98 K. Ogorzaly

18 B. Szeliga

6 M. Zurawski

9 D. Holan

29 A. Brenkus

20 E. Kosinski

11 S. Kawala

7 M. Kolar

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. Szymkowiak

8 · L. Gerstenstein

12 · T. Divis

19 · T. Kolbon

25 · F. Piszczek

26 · P. Kowalik

33 · B. Kasprzak

76 · P. Kielis

– · W. Walega

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Oczkowski

2 M. Dziarkowski

4 S. Golak

6 R. Kanach

11 S. Rak

13 J. Juskiewicz

24 M. Staniak

25 J. Lukowski

27 B. Kusmierczyk

77 M. Cywinski

90 M. Mas

Coach · Adrian Stawski

Substitutes

46 · T. Wojciechowski

8 · K. Bogusiewicz

9 · F. Kozlowski

10 · M. Kona

– · G. Pietruszkiewicz

17 · M. Stepien

20 · I. Abdelhamid

21 · W. Szumilas

23 · K. Nowak

Our number · sandecja nowy sącz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market52%
Us47%
Market52%

We make Sandecja Nowy Sącz a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sandecja Nowy Sącz v Zawisza Bydgoszcz1.55 – 1.14
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 28 AugW2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 16 v 1611 v 10
The market · Sandecja Nowy Sącz win52% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 18:19
Our probability · Sandecja Nowy Sącz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sandecja Nowy Sącz win47%52%−5
Draw25%25%0
Zawisza Bydgoszcz win28%23%+5
Over 2.5 goals50%60%−10
Both teams to score53%61%−8
Over 1.5 goals75%81%−6
Over 3.5 goals28%40%−12
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw72%77%−5
Sandecja Nowy Sącz clean sheet32%––
Zawisza Bydgoszcz clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 7.2 7.7 4.4 1 10.5 12.0 6.7 2.6 2 8.1 9.1 5.1 3 4.2 4.7 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sandecja Nowy Sącz down, Zawisza Bydgoszcz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 28 Aug

SANDECJA NOWY SĄCZ

WLWDLD3–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

ZAWISZA BYDGOSZCZ

WDDDLL4–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków11+1226
2Tychy 7112+1226
3Górnik Łęczna12+720
4Podhale Nowy Targ12+219
5Olimpia Grudziądz12−219
6Hutnik Kraków12+318
7Chojniczanka Chojnice12+118
8Rekord Bielsko-Biała11+417
9Avia Świdnik12−217
10Zawisza Bydgoszcz11+316
11Sandecja Nowy Sącz11+316
12Lechia Zielona Góra12+216
13Stal Stalowa Wola12−316
14Legia Warszawa II12+213
15Śląsk Wrocław II12−410
16Sokół Kleczew12−139
17Świt Skolwin12−149
18Resovia Rzeszów12−135

The competition's standings before kick-off.