Sandecja Nowy Sącz v Olimpia Grudziądz prediction · II Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sandecja Nowy SączDrawOlimpia Grudziądz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sandecja Nowy Sącz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 43%, draw 26%, Olimpia Grudziądz 31%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Sandecja Nowy Sącz v Olimpia GrudziądzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sandecja Nowy Sącz win43%

Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz win31%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Olimpia Grudziądz

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	−1	22
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	+3	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sandecja nowy sącz winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sandecja Nowy Sącz a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sandecja Nowy Sącz v Olimpia Grudziądz~~1.51 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 22~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sandecja Nowy Sącz win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sandecja Nowy Sącz win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Olimpia Grudziądz win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw	69%	–	–
Sandecja Nowy Sącz clean sheet	29%	–	–
Olimpia Grudziądz clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 7.8 5.0 2.1 1 9.4 12.0 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.7 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sandecja Nowy Sącz down, Olimpia Grudziądz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,649 II Liga - East matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpia Grudziądz away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Sandecja Nowy Sącz, 1.25 for Olimpia Grudziądz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~OLI 1–2 SAN · SAN 1–3 OLI · OLI 1–0 SAN · SAN 1–0 OLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 11 Sept

SANDECJA NOWY SĄCZ

WDLDWL4–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–1

OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ

DLWWDW1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	+13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	+12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	+13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	−1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	+4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	+3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	+2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	−2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	+3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	+2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	12	−2	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	+3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	−4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	−11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	−6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	−16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	−13	6