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Podhale Nowy Targ v Lechia Zielona Góra
Podhale Nowy Targ
Lechia Zielona GóraII Liga - East · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Podhale Nowy Targ win at 48%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Podhale Nowy Targ was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–28
- 1′KICK-OFF Podhale Nowy Targ v Lechia Zielona Góra
- 45′HALF-TIME Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra
- 45′SECOND HALF Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 52′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–39–24
- 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Podhale Nowy Targ win 36%)
- 55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–41–23
- 57′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: F. Baniowski · Off: J. Rubis
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Podhale Nowy Targ
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Lechia Zielona Góra
- 66′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: Marcinho · Off: S. Sobczak
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: K. Talar · Off: M. Lipien
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: T. Kubik · Off: M. Surzyn
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: P. Mycan · Off: K. Olek
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Podhale Nowy Targ
- 72′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lechia Zielona Góra
- 77′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Zientarski · Off: M. Szmigiel
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Lisowski · Off: P. Bargiel
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: R. Rachwal · Off: A. Nowak
- 82′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–77–10
- 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Lechia Zielona Góra
- 86′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
- 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Kurek · Off: D. Debski
- 92′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- 95′Full time, 0–0. We called Podhale Nowy Targ at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Lechia Zielona Góra
- FTFULL TIME Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra
- FTPodhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra · Podhale Nowy Targ win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Podhale Nowy Targ are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Podhale Nowy Targ 48%, draw 23%, Lechia Zielona Góra 28%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Podhale Nowy Targ win48%
Lechia Zielona Góra win28%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30
RoundMatchday 12
VenueStadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Match timeline
All events
Podhale Nowy TargMIN
Lechia Zielona GóraEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Podhale Nowy Targ
Lechia Zielona Góra
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Podhale Nowy Targ
Lechia Zielona Góra
Last match: 9 Oct · II Liga - East
Last match: 10 Oct · II Liga - East
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Podhale Nowy Targ
Formation not confirmed
33 D. Fratczak
4 R. Sewerys
21 P. Vosko
7 L. Seweryn
16 J. Rubis
17 M. Surzyn
26 K. Kumoch
42 M. Lipien
77 D. Koltanski
10 A. Nowak
14 S. Sobczak
Coach · Tomasz Kuzma
Substitutes
1 · M. Styrczula
2 · K. Salak
6 · B. Mikolajczyk
11 · T. Kubik
23 · R. Rachwal
29 · Marcinho
41 · N. Gozdecki
56 · F. Baniowski
71 · K. Talar
Lechia Zielona Góra
Formation not confirmed
26 J. Bursztyn
4 I. Kurowski
13 K. Lizakowski
28 B. Rutkowski
33 P. Flis
7 P. Bargiel
9 K. Olek
16 F. Szczotko
18 M. Szpakowski
24 M. Szmigiel
17 D. Debski
Coach · Sebastian Mordal
Substitutes
12 · D. Slobodzian
3 · R. Ostrowski
6 · G. Embalo
72 · M. Aleksandrowicz
5 · F. Majchrzak
19 · M. Kurek
77 · M. Lisowski
21 · M. Zientarski
10 · P. Mycan
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Podhale Nowy Targ
Formation not confirmed
33 D. Fratczak
4 R. Sewerys
21 P. Vosko
7 L. Seweryn
16 J. Rubis
17 M. Surzyn
26 K. Kumoch
42 M. Lipien
77 D. Koltanski
10 A. Nowak
14 S. Sobczak
Coach · Tomasz Kuzma
Substitutes
1 · M. Styrczula
2 · K. Salak
6 · B. Mikolajczyk
11 · T. Kubik
23 · R. Rachwal
29 · Marcinho
41 · N. Gozdecki
56 · F. Baniowski
71 · K. Talar
Lechia Zielona Góra
Formation not confirmed
26 J. Bursztyn
4 I. Kurowski
13 K. Lizakowski
28 B. Rutkowski
33 P. Flis
7 P. Bargiel
9 K. Olek
16 F. Szczotko
18 M. Szpakowski
24 M. Szmigiel
17 D. Debski
Coach · Sebastian Mordal
Substitutes
12 · D. Slobodzian
3 · R. Ostrowski
6 · G. Embalo
72 · M. Aleksandrowicz
5 · F. Majchrzak
19 · M. Kurek
77 · M. Lisowski
21 · M. Zientarski
10 · P. Mycan
We make Podhale Nowy Targ a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Podhale Nowy Targ win | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Lechia Zielona Góra win | 28% | 24% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Podhale Nowy Targ or draw | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Podhale Nowy Targ clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Lechia Zielona Góra clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 Aug
PODHALE NOWY TARG
LECHIA ZIELONA GÓRA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 11 | +12 | 26 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 12 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 12 | −2 | 19 |
| 5 | Hutnik Kraków | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 12 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 9 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 10 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 12 | −3 | 16 |
| 12 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 13 | Avia Świdnik | 11 | −3 | 14 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 11 | −3 | 10 |
| 16 | Świt Skolwin | 12 | −14 | 9 |
| 17 | Sokół Kleczew | 11 | −13 | 8 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 11 | −13 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Znicz Pruszków
Tychy 71
Górnik Łęczna
Olimpia Grudziądz
Hutnik Kraków
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Stal Stalowa Wola
Avia Świdnik
Legia Warszawa II
Śląsk Wrocław II
Świt Skolwin
Sokół Kleczew
Resovia Rzeszów