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Home › Football › II Liga - East › Podhale Nowy Targ v Lechia Zielona Góra

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Podhale Nowy Targ v Lechia Zielona Góra

Podhale Nowy Targ
0–0Full time
Lechia Zielona Góra

II Liga - East · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra PODHALE NOWY TARG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Podhale Nowy Targ win48%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.905
The market’s Brier score0.886

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Podhale Nowy Targ win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Podhale Nowy Targ was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Podhale Nowy Targ v Lechia Zielona Góra
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra
  6. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  7. 52′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–39–24
  8. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Podhale Nowy Targ win 36%)
  9. 55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–41–23
  10. 57′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
  11. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: F. Baniowski · Off: J. Rubis
  12. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Podhale Nowy Targ
  13. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Lechia Zielona Góra
  14. 66′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
  15. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  16. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: Marcinho · Off: S. Sobczak
  17. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: K. Talar · Off: M. Lipien
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: T. Kubik · Off: M. Surzyn
  19. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: P. Mycan · Off: K. Olek
  20. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Podhale Nowy Targ
  21. 72′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
  22. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lechia Zielona Góra
  23. 77′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
  24. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  25. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Zientarski · Off: M. Szmigiel
  26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Lisowski · Off: P. Bargiel
  27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Podhale Nowy Targ · On: R. Rachwal · Off: A. Nowak
  28. 82′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–77–10
  29. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Lechia Zielona Góra
  30. 86′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
  31. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Podhale Nowy Targ win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Kurek · Off: D. Debski
  33. 92′We said Podhale Nowy Targ at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  34. 95′Full time, 0–0. We called Podhale Nowy Targ at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  35. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Lechia Zielona Góra
  36. FTFULL TIME Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra
  37. FTPodhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Lechia Zielona Góra · Podhale Nowy Targ win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Podhale Nowy Targ are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Podhale Nowy Targ 48%, draw 23%, Lechia Zielona Góra 28%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Podhale Nowy Targ v Lechia Zielona GóraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Podhale Nowy Targ win48%
Draw23%
Lechia Zielona Góra win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Line-ups

Podhale Nowy Targ

Lechia Zielona Góra

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Podhale Nowy Targ

Lechia Zielona Góra

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 10 Oct · II Liga - East

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Podhale Nowy Targ11+218
12Lechia Zielona Góra11+215

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Podhale Nowy Targ

Formation not confirmed

33 D. Fratczak

4 R. Sewerys

21 P. Vosko

7 L. Seweryn

16 J. Rubis

17 M. Surzyn

26 K. Kumoch

42 M. Lipien

77 D. Koltanski

10 A. Nowak

14 S. Sobczak

Coach · Tomasz Kuzma

Substitutes

1 · M. Styrczula

2 · K. Salak

6 · B. Mikolajczyk

11 · T. Kubik

23 · R. Rachwal

29 · Marcinho

41 · N. Gozdecki

56 · F. Baniowski

71 · K. Talar

Lechia Zielona Góra

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Bursztyn

4 I. Kurowski

13 K. Lizakowski

28 B. Rutkowski

33 P. Flis

7 P. Bargiel

9 K. Olek

16 F. Szczotko

18 M. Szpakowski

24 M. Szmigiel

17 D. Debski

Coach · Sebastian Mordal

Substitutes

12 · D. Slobodzian

3 · R. Ostrowski

6 · G. Embalo

72 · M. Aleksandrowicz

5 · F. Majchrzak

19 · M. Kurek

77 · M. Lisowski

21 · M. Zientarski

10 · P. Mycan

Our number · podhale nowy targ winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market51%
Us48%
Market51%

We make Podhale Nowy Targ a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Podhale Nowy Targ v Lechia Zielona Góra1.80 – 1.32
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 AugW4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 18 v 156 v 12
The market · Podhale Nowy Targ win51% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 13:19
Our probability · Podhale Nowy Targ win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Podhale Nowy Targ win48%51%−3
Draw23%25%−2
Lechia Zielona Góra win28%24%+4
Over 2.5 goals60%62%−2
Both teams to score61%62%−1
Over 1.5 goals82%80%+2
Over 3.5 goals38%41%−3
Podhale Nowy Targ or draw72%76%−4
Podhale Nowy Targ clean sheet27%––
Lechia Zielona Góra clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 4.7 5.8 3.9 1 7.9 10.5 6.8 3.0 2 7.1 9.2 6.1 2.7 3 4.3 5.5 3.6 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Podhale Nowy Targ down, Lechia Zielona Góra across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 Aug

PODHALE NOWY TARG

WWWLWD3–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

LECHIA ZIELONA GÓRA

WLWLWL3–1 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków11+1226
2Tychy 7112+1226
3Górnik Łęczna12+720
4Olimpia Grudziądz12−219
5Hutnik Kraków12+318
6Podhale Nowy Targ11+218
7Chojniczanka Chojnice12+118
8Rekord Bielsko-Biała11+417
9Zawisza Bydgoszcz11+316
10Sandecja Nowy Sącz11+316
11Stal Stalowa Wola12−316
12Lechia Zielona Góra11+215
13Avia Świdnik11−314
14Legia Warszawa II12+213
15Śląsk Wrocław II11−310
16Świt Skolwin12−149
17Sokół Kleczew11−138
18Resovia Rzeszów11−134

The competition's standings before kick-off.