Olimpia Grudziądz v Resovia Rzeszów prediction · II Liga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Resovia Rzeszów OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpia Grudziądz win~~53%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.335

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpia Grudziądz win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olimpia Grudziądz was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Olimpia Grudziądz v Resovia Rzeszów
5′Much as we predicted: Olimpia Grudziądz was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Olimpia Grudziądz
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Resovia Rzeszów
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Resovia Rzeszów
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Resovia Rzeszów
45′HALF-TIME Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Resovia Rzeszów
46′SECOND HALF Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Resovia Rzeszów
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Olimpia Grudziądz
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Resovia Rzeszów · On: G. Jaroch · Off: B. Zimnicki
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Resovia Rzeszów · On: M. Szkiela · Off: N. Kuzera
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Resovia Rzeszów
73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Resovia Rzeszów
79′🟨 YELLOW · 26' D. Jastrzembski · Olimpia Grudziądz
79′🟨 YELLOW · 30' J. Letniowski · Resovia Rzeszów
79′🟨 YELLOW · 40' K. Rebisz · Resovia Rzeszów
79′⚽ GOAL · 43' Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Resovia Rzeszów · A. Siemaszko
79′🟨 YELLOW · 60' I. Tsyupa · Olimpia Grudziądz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Resovia Rzeszów · On: G. Jaroch · Off: B. Zimnicki
79′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Resovia Rzeszów · On: M. Szkiela · Off: N. Kuzera
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: W. Szafranek · Off: A. Siemaszko
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Resovia Rzeszów · On: S. Mida · Off: K. Rebisz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Resovia Rzeszów · On: J. Ortiz · Off: P. Krawczyk
79′🟨 YELLOW · 70' P. Romanowski · Resovia Rzeszów
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: J. Stec · Off: D. Jastrzembski
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Resovia Rzeszów · On: A. Chojecki · Off: P. Romanowski
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Olimpia Grudziądz
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Resovia Rzeszów
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Resovia Rzeszów
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Olimpia Grudziądz
FTFULL TIME Olimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Resovia Rzeszów
FTOlimpia Grudziądz 1–0 Resovia Rzeszów · Olimpia Grudziądz win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Olimpia Grudziądz win53%

Draw24%

Resovia Rzeszów win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

Line-ups

Olimpia Grudziądz

Resovia Rzeszów

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olimpia Grudziądz

Resovia Rzeszów

8Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	10	−3	15
18	Resovia Rzeszów	10	−12	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Olimpia Grudziądz

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Jerke

14 B. Brzek

25 B. Zbiciak

93 I. Tsyupa

32 P. Stolc

33 D. Abramowicz

44 D. Frelek

7 D. Olejarka

13 H. Jasiak

17 A. Siemaszko

22 D. Jastrzembski

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · J. Pawlak

5 · M. Wichtowski

11 · F. Wilak

16 · K. Fietz

10 · K. Cichon

19 · J. Stec

70 · F. Nowacki

29 · W. Szafranek

9 · D. Baldyga

Resovia Rzeszów

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Tetyk

2 J. Banach

8 N. Kuzera

10 J. Letniowski

11 B. Zimnicki

14 M. Szwoch

22 K. Rebisz

23 M. Geniec

27 P. Krawczyk

77 P. Romanowski

95 P. Stepinski

Coach · –

Substitutes

91 · K. Bochniarz

4 · M. Dantoni

7 · M. Szkiela

9 · J. Ortiz

16 · G. Czapniewski

18 · S. Mida

20 · A. Chojecki

25 · G. Jaroch

31 · J. Staniszewski

Our number · olimpia grudziądz winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

53% The market51%

Us53%

~~Market~~51%

We make Olimpia Grudziądz a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olimpia grudziądz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpia Grudziądz win	53%	51%	+2
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Resovia Rzeszów win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Olimpia Grudziądz or draw	76%	76%	0
Olimpia Grudziądz clean sheet	34%	–	–
Resovia Rzeszów clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.0 6.2 3.5 1 10.0 11.0 6.0 2.2 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 5.2 5.6 3.1 4 2.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpia Grudziądz down, Resovia Rzeszów across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 II Liga - East matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.8% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpia Grudziądz at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Resovia Rzeszów away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Olimpia Grudziądz, 1.10 for Resovia Rzeszów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OLI 2–1 RES · RES 1–1 OLI · OLI 0–3 RES · RES 2–1 OLI

Form · last six in II Liga - East

OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ

WLWDLW2–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

RESOVIA RZESZÓW

DLDLLD1–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	11	+12	26
2	Tychy 71	11	+11	23
3	Górnik Łęczna	11	+8	20
4	Hutnik Kraków	11	+4	18
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	+2	18
6	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	11	+4	17
7	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	11	+3	16
8	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	11	+3	16
9	Lechia Zielona Góra	11	+2	15
10	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	0	15
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	10	−3	15
12	Avia Świdnik	11	−3	14
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	11	−4	13
14	Legia Warszawa II	10	+3	12
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	10	−3	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	11	−13	8
17	Świt Skolwin	11	−14	8
18	Resovia Rzeszów	10	−12	4