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Legia Warszawa II v Tychy 71

Legia Warszawa II
1–2Full time
Tychy 71

II Liga - East · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56
Legia Warszawa II 1–2 Tychy 71 LEGIA WARSZAWA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Legia Warszawa II win38%
The market said23%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.613
The market’s Brier score0.344

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Legia Warszawa II win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Legia Warszawa II 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Legia Warszawa II v Tychy 71
  4. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Legia Warszawa II
  5. 35′Tychy 71 score on 34′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
  6. 35′We said Legia Warszawa II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–22–66
  7. 35′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–66
  8. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Legia Warszawa II 0–1 Tychy 71
  9. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Legia Warszawa II win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
  10. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Tychy 71 win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Legia Warszawa II win 12%)
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Legia Warszawa II 0–1 Tychy 71
  12. 46′We said Legia Warszawa II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
  13. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Tychy 71
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Legia Warszawa II 0–1 Tychy 71
  15. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Legia Warszawa II · On: K. Kosiorek · Off: L. Gora
  16. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Legia Warszawa II win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  17. 66′We said Legia Warszawa II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
  18. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tychy 71 · On: N. Niemann · Off: K. Plichta
  19. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tychy 71 · On: J. Eskinja · Off: D. Hoyo-Kowalski
  20. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Legia Warszawa II · On: A. Ryczkowski · Off: M. Saletra
  21. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Legia Warszawa II · On: P. Mizera · Off: B. Bicki
  22. 67′Legia Warszawa II find the net on 67′. 1–1. 1–1 · 23–55–22
  23. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Legia Warszawa II · On: E. Etchemendigaray · Off: E. Mikanovich
  24. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Legia Warszawa II 1–1 Tychy 71
  25. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Legia Warszawa II win: 38% at kick-off, 23% now
  26. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Tychy 71 win 22%)
  27. 68′We said Legia Warszawa II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–56–22
  28. 73′We said Legia Warszawa II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
  29. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Legia Warszawa II win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  30. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Tychy 71
  31. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tychy 71 · On: B. Jankowski · Off: I. Lasicki
  32. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tychy 71 · On: T. Rygula · Off: M. Lewandowski
  33. 81′A goal for Tychy 71 on 80′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
  34. 81′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–11–88
  35. 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Legia Warszawa II 1–2 Tychy 71
  36. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Legia Warszawa II win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
  37. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Tychy 71 win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  38. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Legia Warszawa II · On: A. Wyganowski · Off: S. Piasta
  39. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Tychy 71 · On: N. Baier · Off: D. Kadzior
  40. FTFULL TIME Legia Warszawa II 1–2 Tychy 71
  41. FTLegia Warszawa II 1–2 Tychy 71 · Legia Warszawa II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Legia Warszawa II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Legia Warszawa II 38%, draw 25%, Tychy 71 37%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Legia Warszawa II v Tychy 71Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Legia Warszawa II win38%
Draw25%
Tychy 71 win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa II

Tychy 71

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Legia Warszawa II

Tychy 71

3Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 11 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Tychy 7111+1123
13Legia Warszawa II11+313

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa II

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Bienduga

4 L. Gora

25 B. Korzynski

3 M. Lauryn

8 M. Saletra

14 M. Mozdzen

28 F. Przybylko

29 S. Piasta

7 C. Pchelka

13 E. Mikanovich

27 B. Bicki

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Trojanowski

16 · P. Konik

22 · K. Kosiorek

11 · A. Ryczkowski

20 · J. Gliwa

23 · A. Wyganowski

9 · P. Mizera

19 · E. Etchemendigaray

30 · F. Pollok

Tychy 71

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Myszkowski

16 P. Olkowski

26 I. Lasicki

45 D. Hoyo-Kowalski

75 J. Chorosinski

5 M. Horvat

6 O. Wojtczak

8 M. Begala

10 D. Kadzior

9 M. Lewandowski

18 K. Plichta

Coach · Rene Poms

Substitutes

13 · T. Proczek

14 · L. Tumala

27 · B. Brzek

7 · N. Niemann

11 · M. Koniuszy

21 · B. Jankowski

44 · N. Baier

77 · J. Eskinja

99 · T. Rygula

Our number · legia warszawa ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
38% The market23%
Us38%
Market23%

We make Legia Warszawa II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Legia Warszawa II v Tychy 711.45 – 1.40
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 13 v 2313 v 2
The market · Legia Warszawa II win23% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 10:42
Our probability · Legia Warszawa II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Legia Warszawa II win38%23%+15
Draw25%25%0
Tychy 71 win37%52%−15
Over 2.5 goals54%56%−2
Both teams to score57%56%+1
Over 1.5 goals77%77%0
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−3
Legia Warszawa II or draw63%48%+15
Legia Warszawa II clean sheet25%––
Tychy 71 clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.1 8.1 5.7 2.7 1 8.3 11.6 8.0 3.8 2 6.0 8.3 5.8 2.7 3 3.0 4.0 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Legia Warszawa II down, Tychy 71 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 Aug

LEGIA WARSZAWA II

LLLWWD1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

TYCHY 71

DWDDWW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków11+1226
2Tychy 7111+1123
3Górnik Łęczna11+820
4Hutnik Kraków11+418
5Podhale Nowy Targ11+218
6Olimpia Grudziądz11−218
7Rekord Bielsko-Biała11+417
8Zawisza Bydgoszcz11+316
9Sandecja Nowy Sącz11+316
10Lechia Zielona Góra11+215
11Chojniczanka Chojnice11015
12Avia Świdnik11−314
13Legia Warszawa II11+313
14Stal Stalowa Wola11−413
15Śląsk Wrocław II11−310
16Sokół Kleczew11−138
17Świt Skolwin11−148
18Resovia Rzeszów11−134

The competition's standings before kick-off.