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Lechia Zielona Góra v Legia Warszawa II

Lechia Zielona Góra

0–2Full time

Legia Warszawa II

II Liga - East · SAT 10 OCT · MOSiR

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Lechia Zielona Góra 0–2 Legia Warszawa II LECHIA ZIELONA GÓRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lechia Zielona Góra win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lechia Zielona Góra win47%

Draw22%

Legia Warszawa II win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · MOSiR

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lechia Zielona Góra

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Bursztyn

33 P. Flis

28 B. Rutkowski

4 I. Kurowski

22 M. Aleksandrowicz

8 W. Nahrebecki

18 M. Szpakowski

24 M. Szmigiel

9 K. Olek

17 D. Debski

7 P. Bargiel

Coach · Sebastian Mordal

Substitutes

3 · R. Ostrowski

6 · G. Embalo

10 · P. Mycan

12 · D. Slobodzian

13 · K. Lizakowski

16 · F. Szczotko

19 · M. Kurek

21 · M. Zientarski

77 · M. Lisowski

Legia Warszawa II

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Bienduga

3 M. Lauryn

4 L. Gora

7 C. Pchelka

8 M. Saletra

13 E. Mikanovich

14 M. Mozdzen

22 K. Kosiorek

28 F. Przybylko

19 S. Piasta

9 B. Bicki

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · D. Stolarienko

– · P. Mizera

11 · A. Ryczkowski

16 · P. Konik

17 · D. Kiedrowicz

18 · J. Lis

23 · A. Wyganowski

25 · B. Korzynski

15 · F. Pollok

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lechia Zielona Góra

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Bursztyn

33 P. Flis

28 B. Rutkowski

4 I. Kurowski

22 M. Aleksandrowicz

8 W. Nahrebecki

18 M. Szpakowski

24 M. Szmigiel

9 K. Olek

17 D. Debski

7 P. Bargiel

Coach · Sebastian Mordal

Substitutes

3 · R. Ostrowski

6 · G. Embalo

10 · P. Mycan

12 · D. Slobodzian

13 · K. Lizakowski

16 · F. Szczotko

19 · M. Kurek

21 · M. Zientarski

77 · M. Lisowski

Legia Warszawa II

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Bienduga

3 M. Lauryn

4 L. Gora

7 C. Pchelka

8 M. Saletra

13 E. Mikanovich

14 M. Mozdzen

22 K. Kosiorek

28 F. Przybylko

19 S. Piasta

9 B. Bicki

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · D. Stolarienko

– · P. Mizera

11 · A. Ryczkowski

16 · P. Konik

17 · D. Kiedrowicz

18 · J. Lis

23 · A. Wyganowski

25 · B. Korzynski

15 · F. Pollok

Our number · lechia zielona góra winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make Lechia Zielona Góra a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lechia Zielona Góra win	47%	45%	+2
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Legia Warszawa II win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	62%	+5
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	42%	+3
Lechia Zielona Góra or draw	69%	71%	−2
Lechia Zielona Góra clean sheet	22%	–	–
Legia Warszawa II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 4.9 3.8 1 6.1 9.4 7.0 3.6 2 5.9 8.7 6.6 3.4 3 3.8 5.6 4.2 2.2 4 2.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lechia Zielona Góra down, Legia Warszawa II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,625 II Liga - East matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Lechia Zielona Góra at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Legia Warszawa II away: 0.80 scored, 2.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Lechia Zielona Góra, 1.53 for Legia Warszawa II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in II Liga - East

LECHIA ZIELONA GÓRA

DWLWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1

LEGIA WARSZAWA II

LWLLLW0–2 · 6–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	10	+11	23
2	Górnik Łęczna	10	+11	20
3	Tychy 71	10	+8	20
4	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	+2	18
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	11	+4	17
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	10	+4	16
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	11	+3	16
8	Lechia Zielona Góra	10	+4	15
9	Hutnik Kraków	10	+3	15
10	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	0	15
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	10	−3	15
12	Avia Świdnik	10	−4	11
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	10	−5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	+1	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	−2	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	10	−12	8
17	Świt Skolwin	10	−13	8
18	Resovia Rzeszów	10	−12	4