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Home › Football › II Liga - East › Lechia Zielona Góra v Górnik Łęczna

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Lechia Zielona Góra v Górnik Łęczna

Lechia Zielona Góra
0–6Full time
Górnik Łęczna

II Liga - East · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Lechia Zielona Góra 0–6 Górnik Łęczna LECHIA ZIELONA GÓRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lechia Zielona Góra win40%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.642
The market’s Brier score0.509

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lechia Zielona Góra win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Lechia Zielona Góra was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Lechia Zielona Góra v Górnik Łęczna
  4. 4′Górnik Łęczna score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–20–60
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Lechia Zielona Góra 0–1 Górnik Łęczna
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Lechia Zielona Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
  7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Górnik Łęczna win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Lechia Zielona Góra win 40%)
  8. 5′We said Lechia Zielona Góra at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–60
  9. 24′A red card for Górnik Łęczna on 24′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 16–22–63
  10. 24′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Górnik Łęczna
  11. 26′Red cards for both sides: Lechia Zielona Góra down to ten, Górnik Łęczna to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 15–22–63
  12. 26′🟥 RED CARD · 25' Lechia Zielona Góra
  13. 30′We said Lechia Zielona Góra at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  14. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  15. 31′Górnik Łęczna find the net on 30′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
  16. 31′We said Lechia Zielona Góra at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
  17. 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Lechia Zielona Góra 0–2 Górnik Łęczna
  18. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Lechia Zielona Góra win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
  19. 32′Górnik Łęczna ahead on 31′ through G. Rogala. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
  20. 38′A goal for Górnik Łęczna on 37′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
  21. 38′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 1–3–97
  22. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Lechia Zielona Góra 0–3 Górnik Łęczna
  23. 40′J. Myszor scores for Górnik Łęczna on 38′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–97
  24. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lechia Zielona Góra win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  25. 45′HALF-TIME Lechia Zielona Góra 0–3 Górnik Łęczna
  26. 46′SECOND HALF Lechia Zielona Góra 0–3 Górnik Łęczna
  27. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: K. Olek · Off: R. Ostrowski
  28. 60′Górnik Łęczna score on 60′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  29. 60′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  30. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Lechia Zielona Góra 0–4 Górnik Łęczna
  31. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: P. Mycan · Off: D. Debski
  32. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Górnik Łęczna · On: H. Antkowiak · Off: F. Janaszek
  33. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Górnik Łęczna · On: K. Turek · Off: G. Rogala
  34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Lisowski · Off: F. Szczotko
  35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Lechia Zielona Góra · On: M. Aleksandrowicz · Off: K. Lizakowski
  36. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Górnik Łęczna
  37. 72′Górnik Łęczna find the net on 72′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  38. 72′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  39. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Lechia Zielona Góra 0–5 Górnik Łęczna
  40. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Górnik Łęczna · On: B. Akhmedov · Off: B. Korbecki
  41. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Górnik Łęczna · On: D. Tkacz · Off: A. Deja
  42. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Górnik Łęczna · On: E. Stadnicki · Off: S. Quainoo
  43. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Lechia Zielona Góra
  44. 90′A goal for Górnik Łęczna on 89′ — 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
  45. 90′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–6 · 0–0–100
  46. 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Lechia Zielona Góra 0–6 Górnik Łęczna
  47. FTFULL TIME Lechia Zielona Góra 0–6 Górnik Łęczna
  48. FTLechia Zielona Góra 0–6 Górnik Łęczna · Lechia Zielona Góra win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lechia Zielona Góra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lechia Zielona Góra 40%, draw 25%, Górnik Łęczna 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Lechia Zielona Góra v Górnik ŁęcznaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lechia Zielona Góra win40%
Draw25%
Górnik Łęczna win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:45

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lechia Zielona Góra

Górnik Łęczna

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 17 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Górnik Łęczna12+720
12Lechia Zielona Góra12+216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lechia zielona góra winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
40% The market32%
Us40%
Market32%

We make Lechia Zielona Góra a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lechia Zielona Góra v Górnik Łęczna1.54 – 1.43
Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 16 v 2012 v 3
The market · Lechia Zielona Góra win32% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:19
Our probability · Lechia Zielona Góra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lechia Zielona Góra win40%32%+8
Draw25%26%−1
Górnik Łęczna win35%42%−7
Over 2.5 goals57%56%+1
Both teams to score59%59%0
Over 1.5 goals80%78%+2
Over 3.5 goals35%35%0
Lechia Zielona Góra or draw65%58%+7
Lechia Zielona Góra clean sheet24%––
Górnik Łęczna clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 5.5 7.2 5.2 2.5 1 7.8 11.3 7.9 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 6.1 2.9 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lechia Zielona Góra down, Górnik Łęczna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 5 Sept

LECHIA ZIELONA GÓRA

LWLWLD1–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

GÓRNIK ŁĘCZNA

WWDWLL4–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Znicz Pruszków12+1329
2Tychy 7112+1226
3Górnik Łęczna12+720
4Zawisza Bydgoszcz13+419
5Sandecja Nowy Sącz12+419
6Podhale Nowy Targ12+219
7Olimpia Grudziądz12−219
8Hutnik Kraków12+318
9Chojniczanka Chojnice12+118
10Rekord Bielsko-Biała12+317
11Avia Świdnik12−217
12Lechia Zielona Góra12+216
13Stal Stalowa Wola12−316
14Legia Warszawa II12+213
15Sokół Kleczew13−1112
16Śląsk Wrocław II13−610
17Świt Skolwin13−169
18Resovia Rzeszów12−135

The competition's standings before kick-off.