Home › Football › II Liga - East › Hutnik Kraków v Olimpia Grudziądz

Hutnik Kraków v Olimpia Grudziądz

Hutnik Kraków

1–2Full time

Olimpia Grudziądz

II Liga - East · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Hutnik Kraków 1–2 Olimpia Grudziądz HUTNIK KRAKÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hutnik Kraków win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.573

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hutnik Kraków win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hutnik Kraków was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Hutnik Kraków v Olimpia Grudziądz
7′A goal for Olimpia Grudziądz on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–21–60
7′We said Hutnik Kraków at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–21–60
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Hutnik Kraków 0–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Hutnik Kraków win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Olimpia Grudziądz win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Hutnik Kraków win 40%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Olimpia Grudziądz
27′We said Hutnik Kraków at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 14–23–64
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hutnik Kraków win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
44′Olimpia Grudziądz score on 43′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
44′We said Hutnik Kraków at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Hutnik Kraków 0–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
45′HALF-TIME Hutnik Kraków 0–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
46′SECOND HALF Hutnik Kraków 0–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hutnik Kraków · On: B. Florek · Off: M. Gandziarowski
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hutnik Kraków · On: O. Kordykiewicz · Off: F. Laskowski
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Hutnik Kraków win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Olimpia Grudziądz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: J. Stec · Off: K. Fietz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: D. Jastrzembski · Off: A. Siemaszko
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Hutnik Kraków · On: I. Galek · Off: K. Rzepka
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Hutnik Kraków · On: K. Lelek · Off: M. Budzinski
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Hutnik Kraków
75′Hutnik Kraków find the net on 75′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
75′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–16–82
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Hutnik Kraków 1–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: W. Szafranek · Off: H. Jasiak
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Olimpia Grudziądz · On: F. Nowacki · Off: D. Olejarka
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hutnik Kraków · On: A. Motrych · Off: D. Sciuk
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Hutnik Kraków
FTFULL TIME Hutnik Kraków 1–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
FTHutnik Kraków 1–2 Olimpia Grudziądz · Hutnik Kraków win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hutnik Kraków are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hutnik Kraków 41%, draw 26%, Olimpia Grudziądz 34%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Hutnik Kraków v Olimpia GrudziądzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hutnik Kraków win41%

Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hutnik Kraków

Olimpia Grudziądz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Olimpia Grudziądz	12	−2	19
8	Hutnik Kraków	12	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hutnik kraków winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Hutnik Kraków a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hutnik Kraków v Olimpia Grudziądz~~1.45 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 19~~8 v 7

~~The market · Hutnik Kraków win~~35% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hutnik Kraków win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hutnik Kraków win	41%	35%	+6
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Olimpia Grudziądz win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Hutnik Kraków or draw	66%	62%	+4
Hutnik Kraków clean sheet	28%	–	–
Olimpia Grudziądz clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.8 8.2 5.4 2.4 1 9.2 12.1 7.7 3.3 2 6.7 8.6 5.5 2.4 3 3.3 4.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hutnik Kraków down, Olimpia Grudziądz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,644 II Liga - East matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.29 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hutnik Kraków at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpia Grudziądz away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Hutnik Kraków, 1.30 for Olimpia Grudziądz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~OLI 2–2 HUT · HUT 2–2 OLI · OLI 4–3 HUT · HUT 1–1 OLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 6 Sept

HUTNIK KRAKÓW

LDLLWL2–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ

WDLWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	+13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	+12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	12	+7	20
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	+4	19
5	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	12	+4	19
6	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	+2	19
7	Olimpia Grudziądz	12	−2	19
8	Hutnik Kraków	12	+3	18
9	Chojniczanka Chojnice	12	+1	18
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	12	+3	17
11	Avia Świdnik	12	−2	17
12	Lechia Zielona Góra	12	+2	16
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	12	−3	16
14	Legia Warszawa II	12	+2	13
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	−11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	−6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	−16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	12	−13	5