Hutnik Kraków v Chojniczanka Chojnice prediction · II Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Hutnik Kraków 1–2 Chojniczanka Chojnice HUTNIK KRAKÓW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hutnik Kraków win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.650

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.602

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hutnik Kraków win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hutnik Kraków 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Hutnik Kraków v Chojniczanka Chojnice
10′We said Hutnik Kraków at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–15
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Hutnik Kraków 1–0 Chojniczanka Chojnice
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Hutnik Kraków win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
11′Hutnik Kraków find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 68–21–11
40′We said Hutnik Kraków at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Hutnik Kraków win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
42′A goal for Chojniczanka Chojnice on 42′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–36–30
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Hutnik Kraków 1–1 Chojniczanka Chojnice
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hutnik Kraków win: 40% at kick-off, 34% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Hutnik Kraków win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Hutnik Kraków 1–1 Chojniczanka Chojnice
47′HALF-TIME Hutnik Kraków 1–1 Chojniczanka Chojnice
49′We said Hutnik Kraków at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
49′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–23–68
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Hutnik Kraków 1–2 Chojniczanka Chojnice
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Hutnik Kraków win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Chojniczanka Chojnice win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
50′Chojniczanka Chojnice score on 50′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–22–69
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Hutnik Kraków · On: V. Nweke · Off: B. Florek
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Hutnik Kraków · On: D. Pietruszka · Off: O. Kordykiewicz
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Chojniczanka Chojnice
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Hutnik Kraków
67′We said Hutnik Kraków at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Chojniczanka Chojnice · On: S. Stypulkowski · Off: J. Oleksiewicz
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Chojniczanka Chojnice · On: K. Janicki · Off: H. Adamczyk
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Hutnik Kraków
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Chojniczanka Chojnice · On: J. Sobeczko · Off: F. Mosek
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hutnik Kraków · On: F. Laskowski · Off: M. Budzinski
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hutnik Kraków · On: A. Motrych · Off: M. Gandziarowski
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hutnik Kraków · On: K. Lelek · Off: K. Rzepka
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Hutnik Kraków win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Chojniczanka Chojnice
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Chojniczanka Chojnice · On: H. Sobol · Off: V. Sabala
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Hutnik Kraków
94′1–2 at the end. Our 40% on Hutnik Kraków misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Hutnik Kraków 1–2 Chojniczanka Chojnice
FTHutnik Kraków 1–2 Chojniczanka Chojnice · Hutnik Kraków win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hutnik Kraków are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hutnik Kraków 40%, draw 25%, Chojniczanka Chojnice 35%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Hutnik Kraków v Chojniczanka ChojniceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hutnik Kraków win40%

Draw25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Suche Stawy

Line-ups

Hutnik Kraków

Chojniczanka Chojnice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hutnik Kraków

Chojniczanka Chojnice

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · II Liga - East

Last match: 9 Oct · II Liga - East

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hutnik Kraków	11	+4	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	0	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hutnik Kraków

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Medrala

5 D. Burka

9 K. Rzepka

11 O. Kordykiewicz

13 M. Gandziarowski

14 K. Bracik

17 B. Florek

19 O. Zawada

20 P. Sajdak

24 D. Sciuk

27 M. Budzinski

Coach · Krzysztof Swiatek

Substitutes

33 · W. Nowak

16 · S. Bil

18 · M. Soja

23 · K. Lelek

25 · V. Nweke

26 · F. Laskowski

37 · A. Motrych

47 · I. Galek

98 · D. Pietruszka

Chojniczanka Chojnice

Formation not confirmed

29 D. Primel

33 J. Teclaw

3 D. Yukhymovych

19 M. Tkocz

2 M. Bakowicz

7 B. Szczepanek

10 M. Famulak

27 H. Adamczyk

80 F. Mosek

97 J. Oleksiewicz

20 V. Sabala

Coach · Marek Brzozowski

Substitutes

88 · A. Czerniewicz

44 · J. Smolarczyk

43 · D. Szot

67 · A. Czyzewski

8 · S. Stypulkowski

30 · J. Sobeczko

31 · J. Zywicki

11 · K. Janicki

9 · H. Sobol

Our number · hutnik kraków winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Hutnik Kraków a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hutnik Kraków v Chojniczanka Chojnice~~1.50 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~4 v 11

~~The market · Hutnik Kraków win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hutnik Kraków win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hutnik Kraków win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Chojniczanka Chojnice win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	61%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	40%	−8
Hutnik Kraków or draw	65%	63%	+2
Hutnik Kraków clean sheet	26%	–	–
Chojniczanka Chojnice clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 7.8 5.4 2.5 1 8.5 11.6 7.8 3.6 2 6.4 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 3.2 4.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hutnik Kraków down, Chojniczanka Chojnice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,633 II Liga - East matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hutnik Kraków at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chojniczanka Chojnice away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Hutnik Kraków, 1.37 for Chojniczanka Chojnice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HUT 1–1 CHO · CHO 2–1 HUT · CHO 3–0 HUT · HUT 3–2 CHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 29 Aug

HUTNIK KRAKÓW

WLDLLW2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

CHOJNICZANKA CHOJNICE

DDWWLD1–1 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	11	+12	26
2	Tychy 71	11	+11	23
3	Górnik Łęczna	11	+8	20
4	Hutnik Kraków	11	+4	18
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	+2	18
6	Olimpia Grudziądz	11	−2	18
7	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	11	+4	17
8	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	11	+3	16
9	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	11	+3	16
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	11	+2	15
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	0	15
12	Avia Świdnik	11	−3	14
13	Legia Warszawa II	11	+3	13
14	Stal Stalowa Wola	11	−4	13
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	11	−3	10
16	Sokół Kleczew	11	−13	8
17	Świt Skolwin	11	−14	8
18	Resovia Rzeszów	11	−13	4