Avia Świdnik v Znicz Pruszków prediction · II Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Avia ŚwidnikDrawZnicz Pruszków

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Znicz Pruszków 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Znicz Pruszków are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avia Świdnik 31%, draw 25%, Znicz Pruszków 44%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Avia Świdnik v Znicz PruszkówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Avia Świdnik win31%

Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avia Świdnik

Znicz Pruszków

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · II Liga - East

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · znicz pruszków winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Znicz Pruszków a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avia Świdnik v Znicz Pruszków~~1.25 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 29~~12 v 1

~~The market · Znicz Pruszków win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Znicz Pruszków win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avia Świdnik win	31%	36%	−5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Znicz Pruszków win	44%	38%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Both teams to score	55%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	41%	−10
Avia Świdnik or draw	56%	62%	−6
Avia Świdnik clean sheet	22%	–	–
Znicz Pruszków clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.6 9.4 7.3 3.8 1 7.6 11.8 8.8 4.6 2 4.8 7.2 5.5 2.8 3 2.0 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avia Świdnik down, Znicz Pruszków across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,649 II Liga - East matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Avia Świdnik at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Znicz Pruszków away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Avia Świdnik, 1.54 for Znicz Pruszków. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in II Liga - East this season · since 6 Sept

AVIA ŚWIDNIK

LLDDWW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

ZNICZ PRUSZKÓW

WDWWWW4–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	+13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	+12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	+13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	−1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	+4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	+3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	+2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	−2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	+3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	+2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	12	−2	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	+3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	−4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	−11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	−6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	−16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	−13	6