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Avia Świdnik v Świt Skolwin

Avia Świdnik

1–0Full time

Świt Skolwin

II Liga - East · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Avia Świdnik 1–0 Świt Skolwin AVIA ŚWIDNIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avia Świdnik win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.380

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.346

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avia Świdnik win at 50%.
4′Much as we predicted: Avia Świdnik was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
4′KICK-OFF Avia Świdnik v Świt Skolwin
22′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Świt Skolwin · On: D. Kort · Off: K. Nowak
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Avia Świdnik 1–0 Świt Skolwin
26′Avia Świdnik ahead on 22′ through K. Welniak. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Avia Świdnik win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
44′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Świt Skolwin · On: D. Kort · Off: K. Nowak
44′⚽ GOAL · 22' Avia Świdnik 1–0 Świt Skolwin · K. Welniak (assist M. Pigiel)
45′We published Avia Świdnik at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Avia Świdnik 1–0 Świt Skolwin
48′SECOND HALF Avia Świdnik 1–0 Świt Skolwin
60′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Świt Skolwin · On: D. Kisly · Off: D. Ciechanowski
76′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Avia Świdnik · On: S. Kaminski · Off: K. Jodlowski
76′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Avia Świdnik · On: B. Falbierski · Off: G. Aftyka
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Świt Skolwin · On: K. Nowak · Off: S. Kapelusz
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Świt Skolwin · On: K. Golebiewski · Off: K. Zendelek
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Avia Świdnik · On: W. Marek · Off: K. Welniak
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Avia Świdnik · On: D. Niepsuj · Off: D. Assuncao
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Avia Świdnik
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Avia Świdnik · On: D. Zbozien · Off: M. Kumorek
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Avia Świdnik
FTFULL TIME Avia Świdnik 1–0 Świt Skolwin
FTAvia Świdnik 1–0 Świt Skolwin · Avia Świdnik win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Avia Świdnik win50%

Draw22%

Świt Skolwin win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Avia Świdnik

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Bialka

26 M. Kolodziejski

6 K. Orzechowski

99 M. Kumorek

33 M. Pigiel

36 K. Jodlowski

24 P. Uliczny

15 D. Assuncao

9 A. Remenyuk

10 G. Aftyka

90 K. Welniak

Coach · Wojciech Szacon

Substitutes

1 · L. Jakubowski

7 · W. Kalinowski

17 · S. Kaminski

18 · W. Marek

23 · B. Falbierski

25 · D. Zbozien

42 · D. Niepsuj

80 · E. Kryeziu

Świt Skolwin

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Abramowicz

5 J. Goral

7 A. Gorgon

8 M. Koziara

13 S. Kapelusz

15 K. Wojdak

20 D. Ciechanowski

23 S. Nowicki

24 K. Zendelek

34 A. Kifert

94 K. Nowak

Coach · –

Substitutes

76 · J. Rajczykowski

4 · S. Rogala

10 · D. Kort

11 · K. Nowak

– · S. Zan

18 · K. Golebiewski

19 · D. Kisly

77 · P. Pieslak

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Avia Świdnik

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Bialka

26 M. Kolodziejski

6 K. Orzechowski

99 M. Kumorek

33 M. Pigiel

36 K. Jodlowski

24 P. Uliczny

15 D. Assuncao

9 A. Remenyuk

10 G. Aftyka

90 K. Welniak

Coach · Wojciech Szacon

Substitutes

1 · L. Jakubowski

7 · W. Kalinowski

17 · S. Kaminski

18 · W. Marek

23 · B. Falbierski

25 · D. Zbozien

42 · D. Niepsuj

80 · E. Kryeziu

Świt Skolwin

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Abramowicz

5 J. Goral

7 A. Gorgon

8 M. Koziara

13 S. Kapelusz

15 K. Wojdak

20 D. Ciechanowski

23 S. Nowicki

24 K. Zendelek

34 A. Kifert

94 K. Nowak

Coach · –

Substitutes

76 · J. Rajczykowski

4 · S. Rogala

10 · D. Kort

11 · K. Nowak

– · S. Zan

18 · K. Golebiewski

19 · D. Kisly

77 · P. Pieslak

Our number · avia świdnik winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make Avia Świdnik a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avia Świdnik win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Świt Skolwin win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	64%	59%	+5
Both teams to score	64%	59%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	42%	39%	+3
Avia Świdnik or draw	72%	76%	−4
Avia Świdnik clean sheet	25%	–	–
Świt Skolwin clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.0 5.0 3.6 1 6.9 9.8 6.7 3.1 2 6.7 9.1 6.3 3.0 3 4.3 5.9 4.0 4 2.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avia Świdnik down, Świt Skolwin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,625 II Liga - East matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

II Liga - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Avia Świdnik at home: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Świt Skolwin away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Avia Świdnik, 1.39 for Świt Skolwin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in II Liga - East

AVIA ŚWIDNIK

LLLLDD1–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

ŚWIT SKOLWIN

DDWLLW1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	10	+11	23
2	Górnik Łęczna	10	+11	20
3	Tychy 71	10	+8	20
4	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	+2	18
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	11	+4	17
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	10	+4	16
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	11	+3	16
8	Lechia Zielona Góra	10	+4	15
9	Hutnik Kraków	10	+3	15
10	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	0	15
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	10	−3	15
12	Avia Świdnik	10	−4	11
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	10	−5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	+1	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	−2	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	10	−12	8
17	Świt Skolwin	10	−13	8
18	Resovia Rzeszów	10	−12	4