Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Warta Poznań 1–0 Unia Skierniewice WARTA POZNAŃ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Warta Poznań win~~40%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.471

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Warta Poznań win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Warta Poznań 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Unia Skierniewice
8′We said Warta Poznań at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Warta Poznań 1–0 Unia Skierniewice
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Warta Poznań win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
9′A goal for Warta Poznań on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
10′J. Apolinarski scores for Warta Poznań on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
37′We said Warta Poznań at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Warta Poznań win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Warta Poznań 1–0 Unia Skierniewice
45′SECOND HALF Warta Poznań 1–0 Unia Skierniewice
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Unia Skierniewice · On: M. Szmyd · Off: B. Eizenchart
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Unia Skierniewice · On: S. Dudek · Off: M. Kosior
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Warta Poznań · On: K. Szymanek · Off: A. Mlynarczyk
57′We said Warta Poznań at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Unia Skierniewice · On: L. Wolsztynski · Off: D. Makuch
68′We said Warta Poznań at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Warta Poznań · On: J. Kendzia · Off: M. Stefaniak
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Warta Poznań win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
76′We said Warta Poznań at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Warta Poznań · On: A. Najemski · Off: K. Lysiak
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Warta Poznań · On: A. Wolczek · Off: P. Kusztal
82′We said Warta Poznań at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Warta Poznań win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Unia Skierniewice · On: K. Toporkiewicz · Off: A. Burkiewicz
88′We said Warta Poznań at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Unia Skierniewice · On: J. Czarnecki · Off: J. Mierzwa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Unia Skierniewice
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Warta Poznań
93′1–0 at the end. Our 40% on Warta Poznań comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Warta Poznań 1–0 Unia Skierniewice
FTWarta Poznań 1–0 Unia Skierniewice · Warta Poznań win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Warta Poznań are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warta Poznań 40%, draw 26%, Unia Skierniewice 34%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Warta Poznań v Unia SkierniewiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Warta Poznań win40%

Draw26%

Unia Skierniewice win34%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

Line-ups

Warta Poznań

Unia Skierniewice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warta Poznań

Unia Skierniewice

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Warta Poznań	10	+3	15
17	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Warta Poznań

Formation not confirmed

42 L. Przybylak

6 B. Lelito

3 O. Azatsky

21 K. Kalata

7 J. Apolinarski

22 K. Lysiak

13 J. Niedzielski

17 M. Stefaniak

23 P. Kusztal

10 A. Mlynarczyk

9 M. Stanek

Coach · Maciej Tokarczyk

Substitutes

33 · B. Piechowiak

2 · K. Lepczynski

11 · A. Wolczek

18 · A. Najemski

20 · K. Szymanek

24 · D. Avdeev

71 · S. Steblecki

77 · J. Kendzia

99 · M. Smoczynski

Unia Skierniewice

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Pruszkowski

15 E. Wolinski

2 O. Gavrylenko

3 J. Straus

18 J. Mierzwa

20 M. Kosior

6 D. Makuch

24 B. Eizenchart

77 A. Burkiewicz

52 D. Gaska

11 B. Bida

Coach · Kamil Socha

Substitutes

1 · G. Wodzicki

7 · J. Czarnecki

10 · K. Toporkiewicz

17 · J. Kaminski

21 · M. Szmyd

23 · M. Mularczyk

25 · L. Wolsztynski

27 · J. Bieronski

53 · S. Dudek

Our number · warta poznań winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

40% The market44%

Us40%

~~Market~~44%

We make Warta Poznań a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice~~1.44 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~5 v 17

~~The market · Warta Poznań win~~44% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Warta Poznań win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warta Poznań win	40%	44%	−4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Unia Skierniewice win	34%	30%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	58%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	38%	−8
Warta Poznań or draw	66%	70%	−4
Warta Poznań clean sheet	27%	–	–
Unia Skierniewice clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.1 8.0 5.5 2.4 1 8.8 12.3 7.7 3.4 2 6.6 8.5 5.5 2.4 3 3.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warta Poznań down, Unia Skierniewice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,634 I Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warta Poznań at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Unia Skierniewice away: 1.00 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Warta Poznań, 1.31 for Unia Skierniewice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAR 0–2 UNI · UNI 2–1 WAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug

WARTA POZNAŃ

WLLWWL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–2

UNIA SKIERNIEWICE

WLLWDD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
5	Warta Poznań	10	+3	15
6	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
7	Ruch Chorzów	10	0	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	−1	12
12	Odra Opole	10	−1	12
13	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9