Warta Poznań v ŁKS Łódź prediction · I Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Warta PoznańDrawŁKS Łódź

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · ŁKS Łódź 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ŁKS Łódź are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warta Poznań 32%, draw 27%, ŁKS Łódź 42%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Warta Poznań v ŁKS ŁódźBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Warta Poznań win32%

Draw27%

ŁKS Łódź win42%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warta Poznań

ŁKS Łódź

10Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · łks łódź winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make ŁKS Łódź a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Warta Poznań v ŁKS Łódź~~1.22 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 18~~6 v 8

~~The market · ŁKS Łódź win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ŁKS Łódź win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warta Poznań win	32%	33%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
ŁKS Łódź win	42%	40%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Warta Poznań or draw	58%	60%	−2
Warta Poznań clean sheet	24%	–	–
ŁKS Łódź clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.6 9.8 7.2 3.5 1 8.3 12.5 8.6 4.2 2 5.3 7.4 5.3 2.5 3 2.2 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warta Poznań down, ŁKS Łódź across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,644 I Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warta Poznań at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). ŁKS Łódź away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Warta Poznań, 1.43 for ŁKS Łódź. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LKS 3–1 WAR · WAR 2–4 LKS · WAR 0–1 LKS · LKS 0–2 WAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug

WARTA POZNAŃ

LLWWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ

DDWLLW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	11	+4	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9