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Unia Skierniewice v Polonia Bytom

Unia Skierniewice

1–2Full time

Polonia Bytom

I Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Miejski

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Polonia Bytom POLONIA BYTOM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Polonia Bytom win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.586

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.601

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Polonia Bytom win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Polonia Bytom was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Unia Skierniewice v Polonia Bytom
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Unia Skierniewice
28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Unia Skierniewice
29′A red card for Unia Skierniewice on 29′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 34–31–35
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Polonia Bytom win 34%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 36' J. Straus · Unia Skierniewice
46′SECOND HALF Unia Skierniewice 0–0 Polonia Bytom
47′HALF-TIME Unia Skierniewice 0–0 Polonia Bytom
55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–43–29
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Polonia Bytom
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Polonia Bytom win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
60′We said Polonia Bytom at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 73–21–6
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Unia Skierniewice 1–0 Polonia Bytom
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Polonia Bytom win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Unia Skierniewice win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 46%)
61′Unia Skierniewice score on 61′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–21–6
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Polonia Bytom
66′We said Polonia Bytom at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Polonia Bytom · On: C. Pena · Off: K. Orlik
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Polonia Bytom · On: D. Rumin · Off: K. Wojtyra
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Polonia Bytom · On: D. Konieczny · Off: M. Labojko
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Unia Skierniewice · On: K. Toporkiewicz · Off: D. Gaska
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Unia Skierniewice · On: S. Dudek · Off: A. Burkiewicz
75′We said Polonia Bytom at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–64–18
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Unia Skierniewice 1–1 Polonia Bytom
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Polonia Bytom win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Unia Skierniewice win 82%)
76′Polonia Bytom find the net on 76′. 1–1. 1–1 · 17–66–17
79′We said Polonia Bytom at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Unia Skierniewice · On: J. Kaminski · Off: M. Szmyd
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Polonia Bytom win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Unia Skierniewice · On: L. Wolsztynski · Off: J. Mierzwa
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Unia Skierniewice · On: J. Czarnecki · Off: B. Bida
88′We published Polonia Bytom at 38%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
88′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–2 · 0–6–94
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Polonia Bytom
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Polonia Bytom
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Polonia Bytom win: 38% at kick-off, 94% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Polonia Bytom win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 88%)
89′A goal for Polonia Bytom on 89′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′We published Polonia Bytom at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Polonia Bytom win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Polonia Bytom · On: K. Michalski · Off: L. Zielinski
95′Full time, 1–2. We called Polonia Bytom at 38% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
95′PENALTY MISSED · 90+5' Unia Skierniewice
FTFULL TIME Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Polonia Bytom
FTUnia Skierniewice 1–2 Polonia Bytom · Polonia Bytom win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Polonia Bytom just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Unia Skierniewice 37%, draw 25%, Polonia Bytom 38%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Unia Skierniewice v Polonia BytomBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Unia Skierniewice win37%

Draw25%

Polonia Bytom win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unia Skierniewice

Polonia Bytom

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polonia bytom winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Polonia Bytom a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unia Skierniewice v Polonia Bytom~~1.50 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~17 v 10

~~The market · Polonia Bytom win~~37% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Polonia Bytom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unia Skierniewice win	37%	37%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Polonia Bytom win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	36%	39%	−3
Unia Skierniewice or draw	62%	63%	−1
Unia Skierniewice clean sheet	22%	–	–
Polonia Bytom clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 7.1 5.6 2.9 1 7.1 11.3 8.3 4.2 2 5.5 8.2 6.2 3.1 3 2.8 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unia Skierniewice down, Polonia Bytom across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,644 I Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Unia Skierniewice at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Bytom away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Unia Skierniewice, 1.52 for Polonia Bytom. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug

UNIA SKIERNIEWICE

LLWDDL0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

POLONIA BYTOM

DDDDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	11	+4	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9