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Unia Skierniewice v Nieciecza

Unia Skierniewice

2–2Full time

Nieciecza

I Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Miejski

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Unia Skierniewice 2–2 Nieciecza NIECIECZA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nieciecza win~~44%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nieciecza win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Nieciecza was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 31–24–45
2′KICK-OFF Unia Skierniewice v Nieciecza
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Unia Skierniewice 0–1 Nieciecza
4′⚽ GOAL · 5' Unia Skierniewice 0–1 Nieciecza
12′⚽ GOAL · 5' Unia Skierniewice 0–1 Nieciecza · W. Jakubik (assist D. Hilbrycht)
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Nieciecza
21′5′ and it is 0–1: W. Jakubik on the scoresheet for Nieciecza. 0–1 · 11–19–70
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Nieciecza win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 31' Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Nieciecza · B. Bida
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Nieciecza
41′I. Durdov scores for Nieciecza on 34′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–20–72
46′HALF-TIME Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Nieciecza
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nieciecza · On: A. Zarowny · Off: M. Kozik
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Unia Skierniewice 2–2 Nieciecza · I. Durdov
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Unia Skierniewice 2–2 Nieciecza
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Unia Skierniewice · On: M. Kosior · Off: S. Dudek
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Nieciecza · On: K. Zapolnik · Off: I. Durdov
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Nieciecza · On: D. Biniek · Off: W. Jakubik
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Unia Skierniewice · On: K. Toporkiewicz · Off: D. Gaska
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Unia Skierniewice · On: B. Eizenchart · Off: M. Szmyd
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Unia Skierniewice
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Nieciecza
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Unia Skierniewice · On: O. Melich · Off: A. Burkiewicz
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Unia Skierniewice · On: J. Bieronski · Off: D. Makuch
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Unia Skierniewice
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nieciecza · On: O. Slawinski · Off: R. Boboc
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nieciecza · On: S. Dabrowski · Off: D. Hilbrycht
FTFULL TIME Unia Skierniewice 2–2 Nieciecza
FTUnia Skierniewice 2–2 Nieciecza · Nieciecza win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Unia Skierniewice win31%

Draw25%

Nieciecza win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stadion Miejski

Referee · M. Jenda

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Unia Skierniewice

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Pruszkowski

15 E. Wolinski

3 J. Straus

28 M. Stepien

18 J. Mierzwa

6 D. Makuch

53 S. Dudek

21 M. Szmyd

52 D. Gaska

77 A. Burkiewicz

11 B. Bida

Coach · Kamil Socha

Substitutes

12 · G. Wodzicki

2 · O. Gavrylenko

10 · K. Toporkiewicz

17 · J. Kaminski

19 · K. Kalisz

20 · M. Kosior

24 · B. Eizenchart

26 · O. Melich

27 · J. Bieronski

Nieciecza

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Chovan

20 M. Jaroszewski

5 L. Masoero

77 A. Putivtsev

16 M. Kozik

19 I. Durdov

13 K. Kubica

8 R. Kurzawa

21 D. Hilbrycht

26 W. Jakubik

27 R. Boboc

Coach · Marcin Brosz

Substitutes

76 · E. Topor

4 · A. Zarowny

10 · M. Drag

11 · O. Slawinski

15 · S. Dabrowski

17 · D. Biniek

25 · K. Zapolnik

44 · M. Synos

66 · P. Olejnik

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Unia Skierniewice

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Pruszkowski

15 E. Wolinski

3 J. Straus

28 M. Stepien

18 J. Mierzwa

6 D. Makuch

53 S. Dudek

21 M. Szmyd

52 D. Gaska

77 A. Burkiewicz

11 B. Bida

Coach · Kamil Socha

Substitutes

12 · G. Wodzicki

2 · O. Gavrylenko

10 · K. Toporkiewicz

17 · J. Kaminski

19 · K. Kalisz

20 · M. Kosior

24 · B. Eizenchart

26 · O. Melich

27 · J. Bieronski

Nieciecza

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Chovan

20 M. Jaroszewski

5 L. Masoero

77 A. Putivtsev

16 M. Kozik

19 I. Durdov

13 K. Kubica

8 R. Kurzawa

21 D. Hilbrycht

26 W. Jakubik

27 R. Boboc

Coach · Marcin Brosz

Substitutes

76 · E. Topor

4 · A. Zarowny

10 · M. Drag

11 · O. Slawinski

15 · S. Dabrowski

17 · D. Biniek

25 · K. Zapolnik

44 · M. Synos

66 · P. Olejnik

Our number · nieciecza winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

44% The market37%

Us44%

~~Market~~37%

We make Nieciecza a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nieciecza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unia Skierniewice win	31%	38%	−7
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Nieciecza win	44%	37%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Unia Skierniewice or draw	56%	63%	−8
Unia Skierniewice clean sheet	19%	–	–
Nieciecza clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 7.7 6.8 3.8 1 6.2 11.3 8.9 5.0 2.1 2 4.5 7.3 6.0 3.4 3 2.1 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unia Skierniewice down, Nieciecza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,625 I Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Unia Skierniewice at home: 1.20 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Nieciecza away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Unia Skierniewice, 1.67 for Nieciecza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in I Liga

UNIA SKIERNIEWICE

LWLLWD0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1

NIECIECZA

LLDWWW1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	+7	18
2	Nieciecza	9	+2	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	+3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	+3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	0	11
13	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
14	Unia Skierniewice	9	−5	10
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6