Stal Rzeszów v Lechia Gdansk prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Stal Rzeszów 1–2 Lechia Gdansk LECHIA GDANSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lechia Gdansk win~~48%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.527

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lechia Gdansk win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lechia Gdansk 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 30–22–48
1′KICK-OFF Stal Rzeszów v Lechia Gdansk
6′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Lechia Gdansk
11′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Lechia Gdansk
13′Little has changed for our model: Lechia Gdansk 48% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–24–46
14′Little has changed for our model: Lechia Gdansk 48% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Lechia Gdansk
32′PENALTY MISSED · 31' Stal Rzeszów
34′🟨 YELLOW · 7' S. Kopasek · Lechia Gdansk
34′🟨 YELLOW · 13' D. Malov · Lechia Gdansk
34′🟨 YELLOW · 30' K. Dodaj · Lechia Gdansk
34′PENALTY MISSED · 31' S. Goss · Stal Rzeszów
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Stal Rzeszów 0–1 Lechia Gdansk
40′PENALTY MISSED · 40' Lechia Gdansk
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Stal Rzeszów 0–2 Lechia Gdansk
45′HALF-TIME Stal Rzeszów 0–2 Lechia Gdansk
46′SECOND HALF Stal Rzeszów 0–2 Lechia Gdansk
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Stal Rzeszów · On: A. Naifi · Off: O. Madej
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Stal Rzeszów · On: A. Buksa · Off: S. Salamon
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Stal Rzeszów
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Stal Rzeszów · On: M. Listkowski · Off: S. Pukala
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Stal Rzeszów
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lechia Gdansk · On: J. Mena · Off: A. Shakh
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lechia Gdansk · On: N. Hovhannisyan · Off: K. Dodaj
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Stal Rzeszów 1–2 Lechia Gdansk
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lechia Gdansk · On: M. Glogowski · Off: V. Blanuta
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Stal Rzeszów
FTFULL TIME Stal Rzeszów 1–2 Lechia Gdansk
FTStal Rzeszów 1–2 Lechia Gdansk · Lechia Gdansk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Stal Rzeszów win29%

Draw23%

Lechia Gdansk win48%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueStadion Miejski w Rzeszowie

RefereeP. Pskit

Line-ups

Stal Rzeszów

Lechia Gdansk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stal Rzeszów

Lechia Gdansk

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
9	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stal Rzeszów

Formation not confirmed

88 M. Koziol

21 M. Thiede

39 M. Kaczor

3 V. Krasovskiy

77 K. Kukulka

17 O. Madej

8 S. Goss

66 M. Leniart

27 M. Rittmuller

15 S. Pukala

76 S. Salamon

Coach · Marek Zub

Substitutes

1 · S. Vanivskyi

2 · W. Machura

10 · A. Naifi

11 · K. Masiak

16 · W. Brzek

29 · M. Listkowski

40 · E. Wisniowski

41 · D. Zieja

44 · A. Buksa

Lechia Gdansk

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Holewinski

19 S. Kopasek

4 K. Lopata

21 D. Beskorovaynyi

3 D. Malov

33 T. Wojtowicz

6 H. Ivanov

99 T. Neugebauer

7 K. Dodaj

97 V. Blanuta

13 A. Shakh

Coach · Vladyslav Lupashko

Substitutes

22 · S. Weirauch

8 · J. Adkonis

17 · I. Bambecki

9 · M. Glogowski

20 · N. Hovhannisyan

40 · W. Madej

30 · J. Mena

88 · B. Szczepankiewicz

23 · A. Ziolkowski

Our number · lechia gdansk winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

48% The market41%

Us48%

~~Market~~41%

We make Lechia Gdansk a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lechia gdansk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. The market has gone from 43% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stal Rzeszów win	29%	34%	−4
Draw	23%	25%	−3
Lechia Gdansk win	48%	41%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	65%	62%	+3
Both teams to score	65%	64%	0
Over 1.5 goals	85%	82%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Stal Rzeszów or draw	52%	59%	−7
Stal Rzeszów clean sheet	16%	–	–
Lechia Gdansk clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.1 6.4 6.3 4.0 1 4.9 9.9 8.9 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 6.9 6.4 4.1 3 3.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Rzeszów down, Lechia Gdansk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,632 I Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stal Rzeszów at home: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lechia Gdansk away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Stal Rzeszów, 1.90 for Lechia Gdansk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STA 4–2 LEC · LEC 2–1 STA

Form · last six in I Liga

STAL RZESZÓW

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

LECHIA GDANSK

LWWLWW0–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 7–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Warta Poznań	10	+3	15
5	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
6	Ruch Chorzów	10	0	15
7	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
8	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
9	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
11	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
12	Odra Opole	10	−1	12
13	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	9	−5	6